With the patent on blockbuster obesity and diabetes drug semaglutide set to expire in India within days, paving the way for a wave of low-cost copies, Novo Nordisk has said it will avoid a price war even as generic rivals gear up to offer steep discounts. The innovator behind the therapy has signalled confidence in its scientific edge and brand equity despite intensifying competition.
According to Vikrant Shrotiya, managing director of Novo Nordisk India, competition in the segment will be driven more by scientific evidence, manufacturing quality and physician trust rather than by the lowest price point.
Analysts expect prices to fall sharply once multiple generic versions of semaglutide enter the market, with estimates ranging from 60 per cent to 70 per cent discounts compared with innovator brands.
More than a dozen pharmaceutical companies are expected to enter the market from day one, including major players such as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Zydus Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories.
However, the local arm of the Danish drugmaker believes the real opportunity lies in expanding the obesity treatment market in India rather than defending market share through aggressive pricing.
“The noise is far higher than the number of patients currently receiving treatment,” Shrotiya said in an interaction with Business Standard. “India has around 250 million people living with obesity, yet barely about 200,000 patients are on therapy today.”
Semaglutide, a GLP-1-based therapy used for both type-2 diabetes and obesity, has become one of the fastest-growing drug classes globally. The molecule is marketed by Novo Nordisk under brands such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus, and is widely credited with triggering a global boom in anti-obesity drugs.
While India is expected to see dozens of pharmaceutical companies launch generic versions after patent expiry, Shrotiya said the company does not see the market as a zero-sum game. “This is a battle of science, not a battle of consumerisation,” he said, adding that complex peptide medicines such as semaglutide require highly controlled manufacturing processes, stringent impurity management and strong safety monitoring.
The therapy, according to the company, is supported by more than 50 clinical trials across diabetes, obesity and cardiometabolic diseases, along with nearly a decade of global usage and roughly 49 million patient-years of exposure. India has contributed 8-10 per cent of participants to these global trials, according to the company.
Shrotiya also emphasised that pricing adjustments had already been made to reflect the Indian market’s affordability constraints, even before patent expiry. “We have adopted an India-centric pricing strategy to improve access,” he said. “Price is only one dimension of value. Doctors also look at long-term safety, device reliability and manufacturing quality.”
The company has also expanded partnerships with domestic firms to widen access across the country. Its semaglutide portfolio in India is supported by co-marketing and distribution arrangements with companies including Torrent Pharmaceuticals and Abbott.
Beyond pricing, Novo Nordisk expects the obesity therapy market in India to grow gradually as awareness improves and more patients seek medical treatment for weight-related conditions. Obesity is increasingly recognised as a chronic metabolic disease linked to heart, liver and kidney complications.
According to Shrotiya, the company is continuing to invest in next-generation therapies that build on semaglutide’s success, including higher-dose formulations and combination treatments such as CagriSema and Amycretin.
Despite the upcoming wave of generics, he said the market remains at a very early stage in India. “In most therapeutic areas you have 20 or more companies competing. In obesity, there are only a few today,” he said. “What matters is expanding scientific awareness and helping more patients access treatment. The market itself still needs to be built.”
With the patent for the drug nearing expiry, the Indian market is expected to open up to a potential ₹1,000-2,000 crore incremental revenue opportunity in the branded formulations segment. The entry of lower-priced versions could significantly boost the adoption of GLP-1 therapies among people with diabetes.
India represents a large and fast-growing market for such treatments. According to the National Family Health Survey-5, nearly one in four Indians aged 15-49 is overweight or obese, while the Indian Council of Medical Research’s INDIAB study estimates that more than 101 million people in the country are living with diabetes.