Right-wing, anti-immigration Danish People’s Party (DF) has more than tripled its vote share in the snap election held on 24 March, securing 9.1 per cent of the vote, up from 2.6 per cent in 2022. The election, called by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to strengthen the Social Democrats (SD), ultimately backfired for the incumbent, as they lost more than 5 per cent of the vote compared to 2022 and were forced into more complex coalition talks.

‘Congratulations on a strong result,’ Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wrote on X, reacting to DF’s gains. The Danish party sits in the Patriots for Europe (PfE), the sovereignist political faction co-founded by Orbán in July 2024. ‘The tide is turning in Denmark, and patriots are gaining ground across Europe,’ he added.

Once a major force in Danish politics, peaking at 21 per cent in 2015, DF suffered a devastating loss in the 2022 election, securing only 2.6 per cent. This was attributed to several factors, most notably the hijacking of its core platform—strict migration policy—by mainstream parties. However, under the leadership of Morten Messerschmidt, DF appears to be on track to reclaim its position as a significant political actor. The current result is widely considered a major success for the party, despite it not being in a position to form a government or join a coalition.

The party has stated that it intends to make government formation as difficult as possible for Frederiksen, with Messerschmidt calling on the ‘blue bloc’—the nickname for right-wing parties—to ‘stand together’. Currently, neither the ‘red bloc’—a loose alliance of left-wing parties including Frederiksen’s SD, the Green Left (SF), and smaller parties—nor the blue bloc has a majority, holding 77 and 84 seats respectively. A total of 90 seats is required for a majority in the 179-seat parliament.

‘Frederiksen called the snap election in February in an attempt to consolidate power’

In this context, the centre-right Moderate party, led by foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, has emerged as a clear kingmaker. Securing around 7 per cent of the vote, or 14 seats, Rasmussen has invited both blocs for negotiations. However, it is widely expected that Frederiksen’s red bloc will ultimately form a government with the support of the Moderates, either in coalition or through external backing.

‘I’m obviously disappointed that we’ve lost ground. But I think it’s an acceptable result,’ Frederiksen said as she arrived at a post-election event. Her disappointment reflects the risks of her political gamble. Frederiksen called the snap election in February in an attempt to consolidate power and capitalize on political momentum, including tensions related to US President Donald Trump’s remarks regarding an American invasion of Greenland. At the time, polling suggested that the Social Democrats could increase their support.

However, the strategy failed, as many voters perceived the move as opportunistic and unnecessary. This contributed to a huge number of protest votes, benefitting smaller left-wing parties, which absorbed former Social Democratic voters.

Crucially, Frederiksen also appeared to count on the fragmentation of the blue bloc, which did not materialize—largely due to DF’s strong recovery. In contrast, the bloc’s leading party, the centre-right Venstre, recorded its worst result in history, making DF’s resurgence essential to preventing a broader collapse of the right.

Beyond Viktor Orbán, his political director Balázs Orbán also congratulated DF on its result. ‘A massive victory for patriots in Denmark,’ he wrote in a post on X. ‘The Danish people are taking their country back—a clear message in support of remigration and national sovereignty,’ he added.

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