That outcome is quite unlikely, meaning that a third round would probably have to be held with the top three candidates. In this round, only three points are to be handed out to each capital — two points for their first choice and one point for the second — but they can also strategically abstain: If fewer than 21 of them submit a vote, a fourth round would take place.
Regardless of how many cities enter round four, diplomats will have six points to play with — four points for their top candidate, and two points for the second. The two highest-ranking candidates win here. A final round is then used to rank the top two.
The real voting is, of course, decided much further in advance. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković invited fellow national leaders from the center-right European People’s Party to an informal get-together in Zagreb in January, at which the customs HQ came up. His argument: Croatia hosts no EU agency at all, despite joining the bloc in 2013.
Warsaw argues, meanwhile, that it can push cooperation between customs and the Frontex border protection agency that is also located there. And PM Donald Tusk is another EPP mastodon.
Part 2: Parliament
In the European Parliament, the voting will be a lot simpler. The lead lawmakers on the file — one for each political group in the chamber — will cast their votes based on the representation of their groups on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection committee.
This gives the European People’s Party the upper hand, as they have 14 out of 51 votes. The Socialists and Democrats hold 11, with Renew, Patriots for Europe and the European Conservatives and Reformists all on six. The Greens will have four votes and both The Left and the Europe of Sovereign Nations two.