Novo Nordisk GLP-1 pipeline shows promise but oral drug trends give analysts pause Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has received a broadly neutral assessment from Deutsche Bank and Citi after a series of clinical and commercial updates, with both brokers flagging encouraging but not transformative data from the Danish drugmaker’s pipeline.
The most substantive clinical update centred on UBT251, Novo’s once-weekly experimental injection that works by activating three hormonal pathways, GLP-1, GIP and glucagon, which together regulate blood sugar and appetite.
The drug was in-licensed from Chinese biotech TUL and is being developed as a potential rival to Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, which works on the same three pathways.
Phase II trial data in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes showed UBT251 reduced HbA1c, a measure of average blood sugar levels over several months, by 2.16 percentage points and delivered weight loss of 9.8% at 24 weeks, both comfortably ahead of semaglutide 1mg (1.77% and 4.8% respectively) and placebo.
Citi noted that on a cross-trial basis the results look comparable to Mounjaro, which achieved blood sugar reductions of roughly 1.9% to 2.4% and weight loss of around 9% to 10% at similar timepoints in its Phase 3 SURPASS trials.
The broker said the more critical test will come when UBT251 is compared against Lilly’s retatrutide, another triple-pathway drug, when obesity trial data from the TRIUMPH programme reads out around mid-2026.
Deutsche Bank, which holds a price target of 275 Danish krone against a last close of 235.80 krone, characterised the clinical newsflow as broadly neutral, saying few drugs in development look likely to be truly disruptive to the current market leaders in the near term.
On the commercial side, Deutsche Bank described recent prescription trends for oral Wegovy, a pill-form version of Novo’s flagship weight-loss drug, as a minor positive, suggesting it can hold its own against rival oral treatments, though it flagged some caution ahead of Lilly’s orforglipron reaching the market.
Deutsche Bank rates Novo Nordisk at ‘hold’; Citi maintains its ‘neutral’ stance.