Holidays during the May half-term break could face cancellations and disruption, with some airlines warning that jet fuel supplies are only stable for the next four weeks.

Fears about dwindling supplies due to the US-Israeli war with Iran are also pushing flight prices higher, with travel experts advising passengers to book autumn and winter holidays now to lock in fares.

The International Energy Agency has warned several European countries “may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next six weeks” and that there could be cancellations “soon”. But easyJet Spain’s CEO, Javier Gandara, has said it is “difficult” to see if an adequate supply of jet fuel will be available beyond the next three or four weeks.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for transporting jet fuel out of the Gulf, amid the Iran conflict has caused jet fuel prices to surge.

Airlines are set to receive guidance from the EU on how to handle airport slots and passenger rights in the event of jet fuel shortages, and the European Commission is setting up a “fuel observatory” ​to ⁠monitor supplies.

Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the bloc’s transport chief, said there were no shortages “as of today” but warned a prolonged blockage of the Strait would be “catastrophic” for Europe and the global economy.

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Travelling abroad during the May half term “could be more of a challenge based on what we know now”, according to aviation expert Bernard Lavelle, who said generally airlines only have about four to six weeks of visibility on jet fuel supply.

“Airlines [are] taking proactive steps to try and reduce their requirements of fuel by cancelling flights and restricting their schedules to try and minimise the disruption but maximise their use of their available jet fuel,” he said.

“There is a physical shortage developing, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia,” said Erika Josefsson of Airhelp.co.uk, which helps passengers with flight cancellations.

“KLM has cut 160 flights scheduled for next month, and Lufthansa is shutting down its CityLine subsidiary early, grounding 27 older, less efficient aircraft to save fuel. Even if a flight isn’t cancelled, airlines are tacking on heavy fuel surcharges to combat kerosene prices that have nearly doubled since the conflict started.”

Passengers jetting off to New York and Europe for half term

At least 12,400 flights are due to depart from UK airports between 22 and 25 May, the bank holiday weekend and the start of the May half term.

Data from aviation analytics firm, Cirium, shows Dublin and Amsterdam are among the most popular destinations in Europe but many holidaymakers are also heading to New York, with 90 flights operating from the UK over the bank holiday weekend.

A fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait, and Europe has relied on the Middle East for 75 per cent of its net jet fuel imports.

As Europe’s largest jet fuel consumer, importing 65 per cent of its needs, the UK is particularly vulnerable to the crisis.

But Government sources have said there are no jet fuel shortages in the UK. Airlines UK, the trade body, said while there was no supply disruption currently, it is discussing contingency measures with ministers should problems arise.

‘Fuel crisis isn’t going away quickly’

However, rising fuel costs are pushing up prices for consumers. Virgin Atlantic has introduced fuel surcharges, with passengers being billed at least £50 on top of their original fare.

“The fuel crisis isn’t going away quickly and is having a direct impact on airfares,” said Joe Beevis, general manager at Flight Centre.

The travel agency’s advice for passengers is to book now to “lock-in” today’s prices, which it said on some routes are already running higher than 2025 levels and are expected to rise.

“For anyone still thinking about summer, the best time to book is now,” Beevis said. “Locking in your price today removes the risk of any further increases. And for those thinking ahead to winter 2026-27, we are already seeing travellers act early.”

Lavelle, who runs BL Aviation Consulting, predicted that there would be a lot of late bookings this year, which could result in airlines lowering prices to attract demand.

“You might get some bargains. If airlines and tour operators find that their forward demand booking bookings are not at the same level that they would normally be, you might see a number of special offers.

“You might see £100 off bookings, £200 off bookings… for the October half term. You might see some free child places being added in,” he suggested.

Tui said: “We’re closely monitoring the developing situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on global aviation fuel supplies. At present, we’re not anticipating disruption to our flight schedules or holiday programmes from fuel shortages.”