Denmark moves to second favourite for victory, Greece climbs up the table while Finland remains the favourite heading into the last days before rehearsals in Vienna.

Semi-Final One

Image Source: TVP
Image source: Siim LÔvi/ERR

Semi-Final One looks competitive for the final spots in the final on May 16. The biggest negative change in the chances of qualification is Poland, who has slipped back two places to 13th favourite and has lost 6 percentage points. In contrast, Estonia has gained 2 places and 9 percentage points, putting it just under 10 percentage points back from the betting markets’ 10th favourite to qualify for the final.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since April 20):

Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 94% (+1%)
Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 94% (+1%)
Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 93% (+1%)
Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 93% (+1%)
Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 84% (+1%)
Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 81% (-2%)
Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 81% (+1%)
Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 72% (-1%)
Montenegro – Tamara Ćœivković – “Noza Zora” – 62% (-3%)
Georgia – Bzikebi – “On Replay” – 54% (-3%)
Poland – Alicja – “Prayer” – 44% (-2 places, -6%)
Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – “Rosa” – 49% (+1 place, +1%)
Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” – 38% (-1 place)
Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic to Be True” – 36% (+2 places, +9%)
San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – “Superstar” – 19% (+1%)

Semi-Final Two

Image source: SRF / Nils Sandmeier
Image Source: Eurovision.com

In contrast to Semi-Final One, no acts have changed positions in the past week, however the chasing pack is growing ever closer to Albania who currently sit as 10th favourite to qualify. Switzerland has gained six percentage points over the past week, in contrast Albania has lost five percentage points, they now sit just six percentage points ahead of Latvia in eleventh.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are:

Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 92% (+1%)
Denmark – SĂžren Torpegaard Lund – “FĂžr vi gĂ„r hjem” – 91% (no change)
Ukraine – LelĂ©ka – “Ridnym” – 91% (no change)
Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 84% (no change)
Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 79% (-1%)
Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 78% (-2%)
Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 75% (-1%)
Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 75% (+1%)
Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 71% (-1%)
Albania – Alis – “Nñn” – 64% (-5%)
Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 58% (-1%)
Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 51% (+2%)
Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 45% (+6%)
Luxembourg – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 37% (+1%)
Azerbaijan – Jiva – “Just Go” – 11% (+1%)

Odds of Victory

Image source: Agnete Schlichtkrull / DR
Image source: Nikos Stolis

While Finland remains the favourite for Victory, Denmark has gained ground over the past week and has jumped into second favourite for victory, gaining 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, France has lost nearly 1 percentage point and now sits as third favourite. The biggest climber of the past seven days is Greece who has climbed a place and gained 2 percentage points, their best placement with the betting public since the start of March.

The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since April 20):

Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 30.5% (-0.1%)
Denmark – SĂžren Torpegaard Lund – “FĂžr vi gĂ„r hjem” – 10.6% (+1 place, +0.8%)
France – Monroe – “Regarde !” – 10.4% (-1 place, -0.9%)
Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 9.1% (+1 place, +2%)
Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 8.5% (-1 place, +0.2%)
Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 6.0% (+0.4%)
Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 3.4% (-0.6%)
Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 2.8% (-0.2%)
Ukraine – LelĂ©ka – “Ridnym” – 2.4% (-0.3%)
Italy – Sal Da Vinci – “Per sempre si” – 2.4% (no change)
Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 1.6% (no change)
Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 1.3% (-0.2%)
Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 1.3% (no change)
Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 1.2% (no change)
Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 1.0% (-0.1%)
Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 0.9% (no change)
Luxembourg – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 0.8% (+1 place)
Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 0.6% (+2 places)
Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 0.6% (-0.1%)
United Kingdom – Look Mum No Computer – “Eins, zwei, drei” – 0.6% (-4 places, -0.2%)
Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 0.4% (-0.1%)
Germany – Sarah Engels – “Fire” – 0.4% (no change)
Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 0.4% (+1 place)
Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 0.3% (-1 place, -0.1%)
Albania – Alis – “Nñn” – 0.3% (no change)
Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 0.3% (no change)
Poland – Alicja – “Prayer” – 0.2% (+1 place)
Georgia – Bzikebi – “On Replay” – 0.2% (-1 place)
Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” – 0.2% (+1 place)
Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – “Rosa” – 0.2% (+1 place)
Austria – Cosmó – “Tanzschien” – 0.2% (+1 place)
Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic to Be True” – 0.2% (+1 place)
San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – “Superstar” – 0.2% (-3 places)
Montenegro – Tamara Ćœivković – “Noza Zora” – 0.2% (no change)
Azerbaijan – Jiva – “Just Go” – 0.2% (no change)

Source: Eurovision World