Novo Nordisk rallies on oral Wegovy’s 21.6% weight loss, bests Lilly; CagriSema submitted for US approval. Stock up 17% in month, but still down 12% YTD.

The Danish drugmaker has lost more than 60% of its market value over two lackluster years, but the narrative is shifting. Two distinct catalysts are now driving the recovery: stunning clinical data for its oral Wegovy tablet and a pipeline candidate that could soon win US approval. The stock, though still down roughly 12% year-to-date, has clawed back about 17% over the past month, closing Thursday at €39.27 after a 2.24% dip.

At the European Obesity Congress in Istanbul, Novo Nordisk presented fresh phase-3 results from the OASIS 4 trial. Patients who responded early to the oral Wegovy formulation achieved an average weight loss of 21.6% after just over a year. Nearly eight in ten participants also reported a meaningful improvement in physical function. Crucially, the pill outperformed Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron on both weight reduction and tolerability — the discontinuation rate due to gastrointestinal side effects was notably lower. Since its January launch, more than one million patients have already started the tablet, and in the US, Wegovy now accounts for 65% of all new prescriptions for GLP-1 obesity treatments.

The clinical momentum is backed by a first-quarter update that, while weak, came in less grim than feared. Reported revenue surged 32% to roughly 97 billion Danish kroner, driven largely by the release of multi-billion kroner provisions in the US business. Adjusted revenue, however, fell 10% to 70.1 billion kroner, and adjusted earnings per share slipped 3%. The company’s obesity division posted a currency-adjusted growth of 22%. Management lifted its full-year guidance, now expecting a currency-adjusted decline in both revenue and operating profit of between 4% and 12% — a narrower range than previously anticipated.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Beyond the oral pill, the real swing factor lies in CagriSema, a once-weekly injectable combining a GLP-1 receptor agonist with an amylin analog. In the REDEFINE 1 study, CagriSema delivered a mean weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, versus 16.1% for semaglutide alone and less for cagrilintide monotherapy. Earlier data had disappointed investors because the candidate failed to match Zepbound’s reduction, but the company believes this new profile can carve out a distinct niche. Novo Nordisk has submitted CagriSema for US approval and expects a decision in the fourth quarter of 2026. A large cardiovascular outcomes trial, REDEFINE 3, is enrolling 7,000 patients. Chief executive Mike Doustdar framed the pill launch as a turning point for the Wegovy franchise, noting that the weekly injectable GLP-1 segment still holds around 55% market share despite Lilly’s growing presence.

Wall Street remains split. Hedgeye has called the stock a top pick, arguing that the market wildly underestimates a US addressable patient pool of 50 million. Jefferies keeps a “neutral” rating and a 270-kroner price target, while Citi also stays neutral but pushed its target to 290 kroner, praising the tablet’s rollout but deferring earnings upgrades to 2027 and beyond. While analysts debate, management is putting capital to work: the company recently completed a buyback tranche of nearly 3.8 billion kroner, part of a broader repurchase program of up to 15 billion kroner that runs into early next year.

The shares trade at 13.6 times forward earnings, a discount to the healthcare sector average of 16.8 times. With more than 900 million people worldwide living with obesity and only about 1% currently receiving branded medication, the long-term opportunity is vast. For the short term, the next concrete milestone is the CagriSema decision in the fourth quarter — a verdict that will test whether the recent rebound has real legs.

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