Novo Nordisk repurposes $1.2B factory for Wegovy as obesity franchise surges; oral pill captures 65% of new US scripts despite Eli Lilly competition and patent challenges.

Novo Nordisk is recalibrating its manufacturing footprint to match the gravitational pull of its blockbuster obesity franchise. The Danish drugmaker has pulled the plug on a $1.2 billion rare-disease factory in Odense, converting the site into a logistics hub to support surging demand for Wegovy and other metabolic treatments. The strategic U-turn underscores a company that is now betting the farm on weight-loss therapies.

The decision comes as fresh clinical evidence broadens the therapeutic halo around Wegovy. Data presented at the European Obesity Congress in Istanbul showed that premenopausal women with obesity lost an average of 23% of their body weight on the drug. A post-hoc analysis of the landmark SELECT study revealed even more striking benefits: perimenopausal patients saw a 42% reduction in heart attack and stroke risk, while the figure for postmenopausal women was 13%. Real-world data also signal a drop in migraine and depression episodes among Wegovy users.

Oral Pill Breaks Records, Pipeline Gains Traction

The commercial momentum behind Wegovy is accelerating. Since January, more than two million US prescriptions have been written for the oral formulation, prompting management to raise its full-year revenue and operating profit guidance. Even the April launch of Eli Lilly’s competing oral drug Foundayo failed to dent Novo Nordisk’s grip: Wegovy has captured 65% of new US prescriptions in the category.

Beyond obesity, the pipeline is delivering. Phase 3 results for Denecimig, a hemophilia A candidate, showed a 43% reduction in bleeds compared with standard prophylactic therapy when administered monthly.

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Yet the rosy outlook does not extend to all corners of the portfolio. Sales of Ozempic, the diabetes stalwart, slipped 8% in the first quarter of 2026, eroded by pricing pressure in the United States. That headwind is compounded by a steady loss of international market share to Eli Lilly, which now holds a 53% share outside the US, according to Morgan Stanley.

Patent Cliff and Price Erosion Cloud the Horizon

Legal challenges are mounting. The Chinese patent on the active ingredient semaglutide expired in March 2026, opening the door to generic competition. Novo Nordisk is fighting back by invoking regulatory data protection that runs until April 2027, a move that could delay copycat products from entering the vast Asian market.

Analysts are taking a measured stance. Citigroup lifted its price target to DKK 290 but kept a “Neutral” rating, citing persistent price erosion in the diabetes portfolio. The tension between operational strength and market skepticism is reflected in the stock’s trajectory. Shares closed at €38.51 on Friday, leaving them down nearly 14% since the start of the year. Over the past twelve months, the decline has been steeper at roughly 35%, as investors weigh the long-term profit margin implications of an escalating price war with Eli Lilly.

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A $200 Billion Prize Hangs in the Balance

J.P. Morgan estimates the global market for incretin-based therapies will reach $200 billion by 2030. For Novo Nordisk, capturing that opportunity hinges on navigating the current squeeze—ramping up production of Wegovy, fending off generics, and defending pricing power. The Odense pivot is the latest signal that the company is reorganizing its supply chain to turn the obesity boom into enduring growth.

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