Introduction to the SAFE Program
* SAFE is a new EU financial instrument aimed at supporting Member States that wish to invest in industrial production within the defense sector through joint procurement.
* SAFE will make up to €150 billion in loans available to Member States for defense spending.
* These funds, raised on the capital markets and guaranteed by the EU budget, will effectively be allocated to Member States that intend to rapidly and consistently increase defense investments by utilizing joint procurement within the European armaments industry.
* A key aspect of SAFE is the “European preference” (*Buy European*) clause, designed to incentivize European production and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
* This is what the EU documents state.
The Situation in Poland and Criticisms of the Program
What is most striking is that Germany has not applied for a loan under SAFE; instead, Tusk’s Poland—which already spends nearly 5% of its GDP on defense—has requested a staggering sum of €44 billion, plunging the country into debt for two generations.
* Furthermore, it is expected to spend this sum within a few short years (by 2030), with the majority of purchases being made within Europe.
* The need to spend the money quickly (agreements for independent purchases are possible until May 30, 2026, after which only joint purchases with other countries will be permitted) makes this instrument more of a procurement program than an investment program.
* The haste and chaos benefit companies that already have established products and production lines, while hindering projects that require the development of new industrial facilities.
* In this sense, it is an instrument for purchasing existing, ready-to-use weapons, and this is precisely where the German and French industries come into play.
President Karol Nawrocki has vetoed the law implementing the EU’s SAFE defense loan program. The head of state pointed out, among other things, the risk of violating national sovereignty and transferring part of security-related competencies to European Union institutions.
* Nevertheless, Tusk pushed for the signing of the SAFE program, fully aware that it is incompatible with the Polish Constitution and the Treaty on European Union.
* Professor Ryszard Piotrowski, one of the most renowned constitutional scholars, harshly criticized this loan: “The SAFE program affects Poland’s independence.”
* The Treaty on European Union states that the EU respects the essential functions of the State, and in particular, national security remains the sole competence of each Member State.
* In practice, the Constitution prohibits entering into loans that allow the European Commission and the Council of the EU to control the Polish military.
* “The Constitution does not allow it, as it prohibits the transfer of competencies regarding the armed forces,” the constitutional scholar emphasizes.
Geopolitical and Industrial Impact
The objectives of the SAFE program also represent a heavy blow to the United States—not precisely because they ban the purchase of military equipment from the US, but because they neutralize the United States’ main ally in the region: Poland.
* The document clearly explains what this is about: a radical shift in the structure of military procurement in Poland.
* This single phrase summarizes the entire mindset of the Tusk government.
* Since Poland’s military procurement structure was previously based on the best weapons in the world—American and South Korean—this shift comes at the expense of the German and French arms industries.
* Now the Germans, using Tusk, want to radically pivot the structure of Polish military purchases.
* It is worth noting that arms industries have already begun speculating in anticipation of purchases linked to the SAFE program.
* For instance, Romania has pointed out that certain suppliers have increased the prices of their weapons offers—such as Germany’s Rheinmetall—by up to 30%!
Financial Conditions and Control from Brussels
MEP Anna Bryłka explained the whole truth about the SAFE loan, with which the Tusk government has deceived the Polish people.
* “The European Commission has created a financial instrument that grants it control over the approval and disbursement of the loan, while transferring all the costs of said instrument to the Member States.
* The real decision-making power lies in Brussels, not Warsaw: Poland must not only obtain approval for its purchases, but must also make them under specific conditions (65% of the components across the entire supply chain must come from Europe; joint procurement). Furthermore, the Commission will monitor the disbursement of funds before granting the next tranche.
* But above all, the ‘stick’ of conditionality still looms large—meaning Brussels’ ability to withhold funds based on unpredictable criteria, just as Poland experienced with the RRF (Recovery and Resilience Facility) funds.
* Naturally, the suspension of quotas and tranches does not suspend the repayment of the debt.
* In short: the Tusk government is borrowing money at an unknown interest rate, which it can only spend with the consent of the European Commission and under its conditions.
* The Polish government does not know the exact interest rate of the loan at the time of signing the framework loan agreement.”
* It should be noted that the European Commission does not possess these funds and must first borrow them from the market through a bond issuance with varying interest rates.
Implications for Ukraine and the Political Background
* A lesser-“publicized” aspect of the SAFE loan affects Ukraine: Poland is expected to transfer a portion of the acquired weapons specifically to Ukraine.
* Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, the plenipotentiary for SAFE, admitted that this percentage should be around four or five percent (meaning we are talking about more than two billion euros!).
* However, there is no guarantee that this percentage will not increase.
What is truly at stake behind SAFE was recently revealed by the President of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber. The German politician announced that the SAFE loan, much like the euro, is intended to be a mechanism that “binds Europe together” to “prepare for scenarios where Bardella becomes president of France and Kaczyński returns to power in Poland.”
In this way, the German politician implied that SAFE will allow Brussels and Berlin to control the political situation in France and Poland: a toxic, multi-billion-euro loan like SAFE is designed, above all, as a strategic tool for EU oligarchies to assume effective control over the sovereignty of nations.
The article in Italian is published in La Nuova Bussola Quotidiana.