A chart published by Sea-Intelligence this week illustrates how rapidly each major container shipping disruption since 2012 has seen delays revert to pre-crisis levels. The pattern indicates quicker recoveries: three months following the 2014 US West Coast labor dispute, one month after Hanjin’s 2016 bankruptcy, 15 to 26 months for the pandemic, and two months for the Red Sea crisis. The Hormuz situation, still ongoing, is marked with a question mark.
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Imaad Asad, a shipping analyst at Sea-Intelligence, noted that carriers have fundamentally altered their operations by deliberately inserting buffers into their schedules. During the pandemic, the absence of such buffers meant any disturbance rapidly triggered a system-wide breakdown. Now, by proactively lengthening transit times, shipping lines absorb the impact of disruptions before they escalate. The industry has exchanged speed for stability, and the chart presents a flattering picture.
Simon Heaney, a container shipping analyst at Drewry, offered a more structural perspective. He observed that the crises differ greatly in scale; for container shipping, Hormuz is far less operationally disruptive than Red Sea diversions, which were themselves minor compared to covid. He added that a surplus of vessels has been key to the industry’s enhanced ability to absorb shocks. The sector has adapted to a state of perpetual crisis, aided by having extra ships to reposition. Disruptions yield diminishing returns for carriers. Their ideal scenario is an event that simultaneously triggers a demand spike and a logistics capacity squeeze, which has occurred only modestly with Hormuz.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, concurred that scale is paramount. The pandemic created unprecedented congestion at major ports worldwide, accounting for the exceptionally long recovery period. The Red Sea crisis affected a smaller portion of total container volumes and offered a feasible alternative via the Cape of Good Hope, allowing recovery even as rerouting continued. Hormuz operationally impacted only the 2-3% of global volumes that normally pass through the strait. Levine stated that the extent of delays and recovery times largely corresponds to the severity of the disruptions, while noting that lessons from the pandemic—especially carriers retaining excess capacity as a precaution—are now being applied to new challenges.
Peter Tirschwell, founder of the TPM conference, strongly disagreed. He argued that the key point is that delays are worsening over time, not that recovery from shocks is accelerating. He referenced the World Bank’s Container Port Performance Index, which measures lifts per hour and has never rebounded after covid. Container carrier leaders acknowledge that long-term port delay deterioration is a reality the industry must confront for years ahead.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, contended that the frequency and character of disruptions have changed. He stated that disruptions have become more frequent since covid began, and their impact is more severe than before the pandemic. He cautioned against viewing crises as interchangeable, emphasizing that each is unique and failing to recognize their differences leads to being caught off guard. His broader argument was that freight volatility is now structural, no longer just a manageable risk but a permanent aspect of the operating environment.
The contrast between resilience and genuine system health is evident in the World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Stress Index, which tracks the volume of TEUs stuck in delays. That index currently sits at its highest point since the pandemic peak—over 2 million TEUs under stress—even as the Sea-Intelligence recovery chart suggests shocks are being absorbed more quickly. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has risen back above $2,000 per TEU. Faster recovery from individual events does not equate to a supply chain functioning normally.