Key Morningstar Metrics for A.P. Moller – MaerskWhat We Thought of A.P. Moller – Maersk’s Earnings
Strong full-year EBITDA and EBIT of USD 9.5 billion and USD 3.5 billion, respectively, on the upper-end of guidance, were offset by decelerating fourth-quarter results and weaker 2026 guidance. Shares fell 7% in early trading Feb. 5.
Why it matters: Maersk cited overcapacity from new vessel deliveries and the opening of the Red Sea as reasons for the market reaction—two very real risks to the business, in our view. Both would put downward pressure on freight rates, handicapping Maersk’s profitability.
After a decade of conservative spending and limited expansion of the vessel supplies, the global order book has returned to its previous high levels, last seen in 2011.Roughly 10% of global seaborne trade traverses the Suez Canal, and the extra time it took to detour around the Cape of Good Hope equated to a 15%-20% reduction in effective capacity on those routes. A return to the Red Sea reverses that effect.
The bottom line: We make no change to Maersk’s fair value estimate of DKK 11,800, having already reduced the fair value in late January upon the announcement that the company would return to the Red Sea. Even after Feb. 5’s fall, shares remain overvalued.
We believe freight rates have more room to fall, with share declines following. We see prices bottoming in 2027, anticipating a full return to the Red Sea and higher supply from additional vessel deliveries.
Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
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