Shares of Denmark’s Novo Nordisk plummeted 17% today, while its main competitor, US-based Eli Lilly, forecast a 27% sales growth for 2026, after which its shares rose 8%. The latter’s position is stronger: the patent protection for its main hits, Mounjaro and Zepbound, will last for many more years. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk is losing this protection in a number of markets. Furthermore, the American company is not threatened by Trump’s tariffs, and the launch of an oral weight-loss drug is already planned for April.
Shares of Denmark’s Novo Nordisk plunged 17% on Wednesday, and the once most valuable company in Europe has again dropped out of the top 10. Since the start of the year, its shares have fallen almost 10%, and over the last year, they have halved. The company is now only twice as valuable as it was before the Ozempic boom. Its last annual sales decline was in 2017, before the mass sales of Ozempic began.
The reason for today’s drop in the Danish company’s shares is a forecast of a 13% sales decline this year. This is worse than most expectations and is linked, first and foremost, to its main market—the USA—and the announced reduction in prices for Ozempic and Wegovy under the government Medicare program by the Trump administration. On one hand, sales are affected by the loss of patent protection in some markets; on the other, competitors are closing in, primarily Eli Lilly.
For Eli Lilly, things are excellent: on February 4, the American company’s shares rose more than 7% in pre-market trading. Its forecasts exceeded Wall Street analysts’ expectations for profit and revenue in 2026, as well as for quarterly profit—Eli Lilly notes high demand for its obesity drugs. In the fourth quarter, the pharma company reported a profit of $7.54 per share. Analysts expected $6.67. Revenue rose to $19.3 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $17.96 billion.
Eli Lilly expects to achieve an adjusted profit of $33.50 to $35 per share this year, which is above analysts’ average estimate of $33.23 per share. Sales volume is expected to be between $80 and $83 billion, exceeding the forecasted $77.62 billion.
Last year, Eli Lilly became the first pharmaceutical company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion—primarily thanks to its weight-loss drug Zepbound.
Eli Lilly’s optimistic forecast stands in sharp contrast to that of its competitor Novo Nordisk. The Danish company’s CEO, Maziar Mike Doustdar, was forced to acknowledge “negative growth” in the financial component. And its CFO, Karsten Knudsen, had to promise that the short-term setback would not affect long-term growth. The future depends on the success of the new, non-invasive form of Wegovy and new developments.
But Eli Lilly also has an oral weight-loss drug, orforglipron, coming out soon. While Novo Nordisk’s main problems are related to price reductions for its drugs, its competitor is successfully managing. Sales of the diabetes drug Mounjaro in the fourth quarter amounted to $7.41 billion, whereas analysts expected $6.63 billion.
At Eli Lilly, they also say that price reductions restrained sales, despite high demand for the medicines. But an increase in patient numbers should help mitigate the effects.