According to a representative survey by the opinion research institute Civey conducted on behalf of Der Tagesspiegel, the CDU remains in first place around four and a half months before the Berlin House of Representatives election. The party of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner received 20 percent in the poll. Behind it, four parties are running neck and neck: the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) stands at 17 percent, while the SPD, Greens, and Left Party each receive 16 percent.

The FDP (4 percent) remains below the five-percent threshold, as does the BSW (3 percent). Other parties together account for 8 percent. Compared with a poll by the same institute around one month ago, the CDU’s lead over the other parties has narrowed further.

Black-red coalition in Berlin without a majority

According to these figures, the coalition of CDU and SPD that has governed since 2023 would no longer have a majority. Possible three-party coalitions could include CDU, SPD, and Greens, or SPD, Greens, and the Left Party. A government including the AfD is considered very unlikely, as several parties have ruled out cooperation.

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The election for the Berlin House of Representatives is scheduled for September 20. In the repeat election for the House of Representatives in 2023, the CDU was the clear winner with 28.2 percent of the party-list votes. SPD and Greens each received 18.4 percent, with the Social Democrats obtaining slightly more votes. The Left Party won 12.2 percent, while the AfD received 9.1 percent. The FDP, with 4.6 percent, failed to re-enter parliament.

Uncertainties due to weaker party loyalty

For the current Civey poll, 3,000 Berlin residents were surveyed between April 21 and May 5. The statistical margin of error is given as 3.4 percent.

Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainties. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for polling institutes to interpret collected data accurately. In principle, polls only reflect public opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts of the election result.

This article was originally written and published on the 7th of May in German. It was translated in English with the use of Artificial Intelligence.