Two narratives are competing for Novo Nordisk\u2019s share price. One points to a stock that is trading at \u20ac38.20, a full 41% below its level 12 months ago, with the 52-week high of \u20ac65.20 a distant memory. The other highlights a product pipeline that is firing on multiple fronts: an oral version of Wegovy racking up 3 million prescriptions in the US, a dual-acting obesity candidate that has just delivered a 14.6% weight-loss result, and a fresh \u20ac29 million production investment in China.<\/p>\n
For now, the market is leaning heavily on the first story. But the second is becoming harder to ignore.<\/p>\n
China Gets a Twin-Pronged Push<\/p>\n
Novo Nordisk\u2019s China strategy gained tangibility on two fronts last week. The company announced a 200 million yuan injection \u2014 roughly $29 million \u2014 into its Tianjin manufacturing site, earmarked for expanding assembly lines for drugs and injection pens. Since 2003, the Danish pharma group has pumped more than 17 billion yuan into Chinese operations, a cumulative bet that underscores how critical the region has become.<\/p>\n
Separately, CEO Mike Doustdar confirmed that an application for the oral version of Wegovy will be filed with Chinese regulators \u201cwithin months.\u201d The UK\u2019s MHRA has already approved the daily GLP-1 pill \u2014 making it the third authority after the US Food and Drug Administration and the United Arab Emirates to give the green light. China would be next.<\/p>\n
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?<\/a><\/p>\n The timing is sensitive. Novo Nordisk\u2019s semaglutide patent expired in China in March 2026, leaving the company reliant on a regulatory data protection period that runs until early 2027. That window is narrow, and Eli Lilly has already submitted its oral GLP-1 candidate Orforglipron to Chinese authorities. Being second in a market of this size is far from ideal \u2014 but being absent would be far worse.<\/p>\n A Pipeline Engine That Keeps Producing<\/p>\n Beyond the near-term China race, the most potent argument for a reassessment of Novo Nordisk\u2019s valuation lies further out in development. At the ADA 2026 congress in New Orleans, the company presented Phase 2 data for Zenagamtide \u2014 formerly known as Amycretin \u2014 a dual agonist of GLP-1 and amylin receptors. In patients with type 2 diabetes, the highest dose delivered a mean weight loss of 14.6% after 36 weeks and an HbA1c reduction of up to 1.71 percentage points.<\/p>\n Crucially, the weight-loss curve had not yet plateaued at the higher doses, leaving room for further improvement. Novo Nordisk plans to launch a Phase 3 programme for Zenagamtide in type 2 diabetes during the second half of 2026. The REIMAGINE-1-3 studies were simultaneously published in the Lancet and Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology \u2014 peer-reviewed validation rather than promotional gloss.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the oral Wegovy rollout is gaining traction. In the US, the pill has crossed 3 million prescriptions in just over five months. Doustdar noted that 80% of users had not previously been treated with a GLP-1 therapy, suggesting the oral formulation is expanding the market rather than cannibalising the injection.<\/p>\n Risks That Show Up in the Price \u2014 and Risks That Don\u2019t<\/p>\n The stock is not without genuine headwinds. A data security incident disclosed in early June exposed patient information from clinical trials, and production constraints for GLP-1 therapies persist. In the REDEFINE-4 study, Novo Nordisk\u2019s CagriSema delivered 23% weight loss after 84 weeks, while Eli Lilly\u2019s Zepbound achieved 25.5% \u2014 a gap that continues to shadow the company\u2019s obesity franchise.<\/p>\n