A.P. Moller-Maersk is growing more optimistic about the remainder of 2026, raising its full-year earnings outlook after stronger-than-expected container demand and sustained freight rate increases reshaped what many carriers had expected would be another challenging year. <\/p>\n
The Danish shipping and logistics giant on Monday raised its guidance for underlying EBITDA to between $8 billion and $10 billion, up from its previous forecast of $4.5 billion to $7 billion. It also boosted its underlying EBIT outlook to between $2 billion and $4 billion, compared with prior guidance<\/a> issued in February that ranged from a $1.5 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. <\/p>\n More from WWD <\/p>\n Maersk<\/a> likewise lifted its free cash flow outlook, now expecting an outflow of at least $1.5 billion instead of at least $3 billion. <\/p>\n The revised guidance assumes global container market growth of about 4 percent this year, the high end of the company’s previous forecast of 2 percent to 4 percent. <\/p>\n Maersk attributed the improved outlook to continued market strength, particularly in Asia, as well as a sustained rise in spot freight rates that has supported carrier profitability despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. <\/p>\n The upgrade marks a sharp reversal from sentiment earlier this year<\/a>, when ocean carriers<\/a> warned that a wave of new vessel deliveries would pressure freight rates<\/a> and margins after two years of Red Sea-driven supply chain disruptions. <\/p>\n Instead, the market has remained surprisingly resilient. <\/p>\n Benchmark container freight rates have climbed steadily<\/a> through June as retailers continued pulling forward shipments ahead of evolving U.S. tariff policies and peak-season inventory builds. Drewry’s World Container Index increased 5 percent in the latest weekly reading to $4,166 per 40-foot container, its highest level since September 2024<\/a>. The benchmark has surged more than 45 percent over the past month, fueled largely by rising trans-Pacific rates. <\/p>\n The result has been stronger pricing power than many carriers anticipated heading into the year. <\/p>\n Freight rates rose rapidly in May as carriers added more fuel surcharges<\/a> and general rate increases amid the war in Iran and near-cessation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But rates have remained elevated even as fuel costs eased, suggesting underlying cargo demand has been stronger than expected rather than driven solely by temporary cost inflation. <\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n While geopolitical tensions remain a major wildcard, Maersk is hoping the recent memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran to end their war will also result in a more secure environment in the Red Sea. <\/p>\n Earlier this month, container shipping market research firm Linerlytica reported that Maersk resumed limited sailings through the Suez Canal, with vessels including the Santa Catarina Maersk and Clementine Maersk successfully transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in recent weeks. In total, Linerlytica said Maersk had three westbound sailings on its Middle East Container Line (MECL) move through the Suez Canal since June 13. <\/p>\n The voyages represent the company’s first known container ship passages through the corridor since suspending its tests at the start of the Iran war, suggesting Maersk is cautiously testing security conditions<\/a> rather than fully restoring Red Sea services. <\/p>\n