{"id":134041,"date":"2026-07-23T11:26:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T11:26:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/134041\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T11:26:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T11:26:11","slug":"fifa-global-advisory-body-clash-over-potential-betting-irregularities-at-world-cup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/134041\/","title":{"rendered":"FIFA, global advisory body clash over potential betting irregularities at World Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>An international advisory body has raised seven notices relating to possible match manipulation from potential betting irregularities identified in the 2026 men\u2019s World Cup.<\/p>\n<p>The findings from the Group of Copenhagen \u2014 an independent international network dedicated to detecting, sanctioning, and preventing the manipulation of sports competitions \u2014 follow its integrity monitoring operation across the tournament\u2019s 104 matches.<\/p>\n<p>The full report has not yet been published but a summary of its conclusions has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coe.int\/fr\/web\/sport\/-\/review-of-the-group-of-copenhagen-s-integrity-monitoring-of-the-fifa-world-cup\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">released by the Council of Europe.<\/a> According to sources briefed on the report, who spoke anonymously as they were not authorised to do so publicly, among the in-game notices to raise potential irregularities were:<\/p>\n<p>The red card shown to South Africa\u2019s Themba Zwane in the 84th minute of his side\u2019s tournament-opening game against Mexico<br \/>\nAmerican cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket receiving $4.8 million (\u00a33.6m) on markets for Spain not to defeat Cape Verde in their group-stage game, which ended in a goalless draw<br \/>\nThe three-and-a-half-minute delay from the video assistant referee (VAR) team to disallow a goal from Spain\u2019s Ferran Torres in its 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia<\/p>\n<p>The findings, sources say, also detailed how Polymarket opened a market on July 2 asking, \u201cWill Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?\u201d That was opened on the same day the U.S. forward was shown a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last-32 stage.<\/p>\n<p>FIFA\u2019s Disciplinary Committee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7423410\/2026\/07\/05\/usmnt-folarin-balogun-red-card-available\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">only confirmed that Balogun would be available to play<\/a>, having had his ban suspended, on July 5. Sources say the Group of Copenhagen\u2019s report said no other such markets were opened for the other 14 players who were shown a red card during the tournament \u2014 none of whom had bans suspended.<\/p>\n<p>The Group of Copenhagen \u2014 which operates under the Council of Europe\u2019s Macolin Convention, a multilateral treaty which seeks to address fixing by changing international law \u2014 has said it has sent an official request for a written explanation to FIFA regarding the Balogun case. The Athletic has approached FIFA and Polymarket for comment on the Group of Copenhagen\u2019s findings.<\/p>\n<p>Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert who has worked with several governments on betting regulatory issues, has worked with the Group of Copenhagen before, though was not part of this report, told\u00a0The Athletic that irregularities flagged may be because of other factors aside from manipulation.<\/p>\n<p>Why The World Cup Set A Worrying Precedent<\/p>\n<p>Kate Mason<\/p>\n<p>The Group of Copenhagen\u2019s operation was conducted in coordination with FIFA\u2019s Integrity Task Force \u2014 of which it and the Council of Europe, which are independent, are members.<\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday, <a href=\"https:\/\/inside.fifa.com\/legal\/integrity\/news\/no-suspicious-betting-activity-world-cup-2026\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">FIFA\u2019s Integrity Task Force<\/a> published findings reporting that \u201cno suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture\u201d had been identified across the entirety of the competition.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, however, the Group of Copenhagen detailed that seven \u201cyellow notices\u201d were raised within its own monitoring of the World Cup.<\/p>\n<p>Per the group\u2019s definition, these notices are flagged due to \u201cseveral different indications of irregularities\u201d which can include \u201cunexplained fluctuations in odds, rumours on social media or source information.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The group categorises events based on four colour-coded categories: green (normal), yellow (slightly increased alert), orange (increased alert) and red (highest alert).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Group of Copenhagen\u2019s notices can be explained by atypical behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,\u201d Kalb told\u00a0The Athletic.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues. When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviours but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you are a traditional bookmaker, there will be matches when everyone bets on a very strong favourite to win. So maybe, from a bookmaker\u2019s perspective, there are too many people betting on this outcome. If they are a small company, this may be a risk: so they could use a prediction market like Polymarket to hedge that risk.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy doing that, they can use the outcomes of the strong favourites not winning as a de facto insurance policy. It is selling those outcomes against the possibility of a favourite winning to minimise potentially big losses.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>FIFA\u2019s Integrity Task Force was established in 2019 for that year\u2019s women\u2019s World Cup and has been in place for each World Cup since, with the Group of Copenhagen co-ordinating with them in each tournament.<\/p>\n<p>The Group of Copenhagen estimates that $240bn was placed in bets across the World Cup, approximately twice the amount from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.<\/p>\n<p>It says it placed 15 World Cup matches under increased surveillance, particularly during the final round of group-stage matches and \u201c12 major controversies analysed in light of integrity risks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe volume of betting in a World Cup is so huge, it is very difficult to make any extrapolations from that,\u201d said Kalb.\u00a0\u201cEach match represents billions of pounds.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For the first time, the Group of Copenhagen provided continuous monitoring of prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi (an official partner of FIFA), which operate in a fragmented and rapidly evolving regulatory environment, with rules varying by jurisdiction.<\/p>\n<p>The performance of prediction markets during the World Cup \u201csurpassed every estimate that any of us have projected,\u201d Chad Beynon, a gaming and lodging analyst at the financial services firm Macquarie Group, told the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/07\/18\/business\/world-cup-kalshi-polymarket.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times<\/a> earlier this week.<\/p>\n<p>The Group of Copenhagen said in its report: \u201cThese prediction markets raise unprecedented issues: they allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace. Monitoring them is a first for an international competition.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An international advisory body has raised seven notices relating to possible match manipulation from potential betting irregularities identified&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":134042,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[6],"tags":[108,14220,11504,133,12392,65057],"class_list":["post-134041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-copenhagen","tag-copenhagen","tag-fifa-mens-world-cup","tag-international-football","tag-soccer","tag-sports-business","tag-us-mens-national-team"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@dk\/116969051482300139","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=134041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134041\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/134042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=134041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=134041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/dk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=134041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}