Amylin is a pancreatic hormone that signals fullness through a different route than GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1)<\/a>, the gut hormone mimicked by semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic. So, amylin could technically be used alongside semaglutide to suppress appetite and boost weight loss from two different directions. And that’s the premise of Novo Nordisk’s next generation of weight loss programs. <\/p>\n CagriSema, its candidate that’s composed of a combination of cagrilintide (an amylin analog) and semaglutide, went to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December 2025, with the review expected to conclude this year. In the bull case for Novo’s stock, CagriSema will get the green light from regulators and then, starting shortly after commercialization begins, it’ll take enough market share to become the leading weight loss therapy. <\/p>\n The problem with the bull thesis coming to fruition is that the clinical data about the candidate make it hard to believe. <\/p>\n In an open-label phase 3 trial in 809 adults with obesity, CagriSema showed 23% weight loss at 84 weeks, meaning it lagged the 25.5% for tirzepatide, the already-approved Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) medicine sold as Zepbound. CagriSema’s side effects were mostly mild to moderate gastrointestinal complaints, so the miss was about efficacy rather than tolerability. The main problem is that it’s a newer program that can’t obviously beat Lilly’s older program on efficacy based on what’s known right now. <\/p>\n Another program that could support the bull case is Novo’s amycretin, which is one molecule that hits multiple receptors, in contrast to CagriSema’s approach of combining multiple molecules to accomplish that goal. Amycretin’s phase 3 obesity trial began dosing in February 2026 and should wrap up in late 2029. <\/p>\n So, by that deadline, it should be clear to the market whether Novo is going to be able to launch a highly competitive weight loss drug, and it’ll also be clear whether the pharma’s upcoming entrant was a success or not. <\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n This business might stay a step behind the competition <\/p>\n The bear case for Novo Nordisk’s stock<\/a> will not need any catastrophes or major inversions of competitive positioning to play out. <\/p>\n For the most part, the bear case calls for retatrutide, Lilly’s triple agonist that showed up to 28% weight loss and that’s headed for a first-quarter 2027 approval filing, to erode Novo’s market share for Wegovy even more than Zepbound already has. In a worst-case scenario, Novo’s top line for 2029 could look very much like its top line in 2025. But that’s unlikely to happen simply because once patients are on weight loss medicines, they tend to stay on a treatment that works rather than switching. <\/p>\n Thus, the base case is that by mid-2029, Novo’s stock will be somewhat higher than today, thanks to a regular drumbeat of decent data from its clinical trials, and from building out its pipeline with ongoing investment in research and development (R&D). <\/p>\n But, at least for as long as Eli Lilly leads the weight loss market on absolute weight loss drug revenue, Novo Nordisk will be struggling a bit. That means it’s a bit hard to see a strong argument for buying its stock. <\/p>\n Should you buy stock in Novo Nordisk right now? <\/p>\n Before you buy stock in Novo Nordisk, consider this: <\/p>\n The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the\u00a010 best stocks<\/a> for investors to buy now\u2026 and Novo Nordisk wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. <\/p>\n Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0you’d have $379,662!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,206,116!* <\/p>\n Now, it’s worth noting\u00a0Stock Advisor’s total average return is 886% \u2014 a market-crushing outperformance compared to 206% for the S&P 500.\u00a0Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with\u00a0Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. <\/p>\n See the 10 stocks \u00bb<\/a> <\/p>\n *Stock Advisor returns as of July 28, 2026. <\/p>\n Alex Carchidi<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/a> Image source: The Motley Fool. Its next generation of weight loss programs is facing an awkward issue <\/p>\n