CagriSema’s obesity data have been encouraging, meeting the primary goals in two late-stage studies and supporting the FDA filing. In the phase III REDEFINE 1 study, CagriSema achieved a mean weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, assuming all participants adhered to treatment, compared with 16.1% for Wegovy and 11.8% for cagrilintide. In the REDEFINE 2 study, which enrolled people with obesity or overweight and T2D, treatment with CagriSema achieved a mean weight loss of 15.7%, assuming all participants adhered to treatment. Both studies demonstrated statistically significant weight-loss benefits versus placebo.<\/p>\n
We note that despite the positive results, Novo Nordisk faced significant setbacks following the announcement of these data in late 2024 and early 2025, respectively, as CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected weight loss relative to investor expectations. The concern became more relevant after the phase III REDEFINE 4 head-to-head study against Eli Lilly’s (LLY Quick QuoteLLY<\/a> – Free Report<\/a>) obesity drug, Zepbound (tirzepatide 15 mg). CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss after 84 weeks, but failed to demonstrate non-inferiority to Zepbound, which delivered 25.5% weight loss under the efficacy estimand. The results make it difficult for CagriSema at its current dose to establish a clear efficacy advantage over Lilly’s leading obesity therapy.<\/p>\n NVO Needs CagriSema to Diversify Beyond Semaglutide<\/p>\n The need for new growth drivers has become more pressing as NVO’s core GLP-1 franchise faces increasing competition. In the first half of 2026, Novo Nordisk reported total sales of DKK 175.3 billion, but adjusted sales rose only 2% at constant exchange rates. The company has also guided for 2026 adjusted sales growth of 0% to -6% at CER, despite raising the outlook following stronger-than-expected GLP-1 momentum in the second quarter.<\/p>\n Eli Lilly illustrates the competitive pressure. Mounjaro (for T2D) generated $18.6 billion in first-half 2026 sales, up 106% year over year, while Zepbound generated $9.1 billion, up 60%. LLY\u2019s first-half 2026 revenues increased 51%, driven primarily by volume growth from the two tirzepatide products. This momentum has made it increasingly important for Novo Nordisk to develop products that can expand beyond its marketed semaglutide franchise.<\/p>\n NVO Seeks to Strengthen CagriSema\u2019s Competitive Position<\/p>\n The diabetes opportunity has gained further support from the broader REIMAGINE program. The phase III REIMAGINE 1-3 studies all met their primary endpoints, demonstrating significant HbA1c reductions and confirmatory weight-loss benefits across patients at different stages of T2D, including those treated with diet and exercise alone, metformin-based regimens and basal insulin. In REIMAGINE 2, CagriSema achieved a 1.91-percentage-point reduction in HbA1c and 14.2% weight loss after 68 weeks, significantly outperforming Wegovy on both measures. In REIMAGINE 3, CagriSema produced a 2.33-percentage-point reduction in HbA1c and 12% weight loss at 40 weeks when added to basal insulin. These results support CagriSema\u2019s potential use across different stages of T2D treatment.<\/p>\n Novo Nordisk is also testing whether higher dosing can improve CagriSema\u2019s obesity profile. The company plans to initiate a phase III study of high-dose CagriSema combining cagrilintide 2.4 mg with Wegovy HD (injectable semaglutide 7.2 mg) in the second half of 2026. Separately, the phase III REDEFINE 11 study is evaluating the full weight-loss potential of the existing 2.4 mg\/2.4 mg combination in obese adults, with results expected in the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n Taken together, CagriSema offers NVO a potential new growth driver, with encouraging late-stage results in T2D, while its obesity prospects could improve if the higher-dose Wegovy HD combination succeeds. Therefore, its ongoing clinical and regulatory progress will determine whether CagriSema can become a meaningful contributor to NVO\u2019s growth and competitive position.<\/p>\n NVO Faces Rising Competitive Pressure Beyond LLY in GLP-1s<\/p>\n While Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate this space, smaller biotechs like\u00a0Structure Therapeutics\u00a0(GPCR Quick QuoteGPCR<\/a> – Free Report<\/a>) and\u00a0Viking Therapeutics\u00a0(VKTX Quick QuoteVKTX<\/a> – Free Report<\/a>) are also advancing GLP-1\u2013based therapies for treating obesity.<\/p>\n Viking Therapeutics\u2019 dual GIPR\/GLP-1 receptor agonist (RA), VK2735, is being developed in both oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity.\u00a0Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n Structure Therapeutics\u2019 phase II ACCESS program on its orally administered small molecule GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Based on such encouraging results, Structure Therapeutics has initiated dosing patients in its late-stage ACCOMPLISHprogram to evaluate aleniglipron for chronic weight management.<\/p>\n NVO\u2019s Stock Price, Valuation & Estimates<\/p>\n
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