At the European Obesity Congress, Novo Nordisk presents 52 studies, with oral Wegovy facing Eli Lilly’s Foundayo in the pivotal ORION trial. Strong prescription data and raised guidance offset patent cliff risks.<\/p>\n
Novo Nordisk has arrived in Istanbul with a data arsenal. The European Obesity Congress opens today with the Danish pharma giant presenting no fewer than 52 studies spanning its entire metabolic portfolio. The focus has shifted decisively beyond simple weight loss: cardiovascular health and menopause-specific needs are now centre stage, while the company\u2019s oral weight-loss franchise prepares for its biggest test yet.<\/p>\n
All eyes are on Friday\u2019s ORION study, which will deliver the first head-to-head comparison of Novo Nordisk\u2019s oral Wegovy against Eli Lilly\u2019s recently approved Foundayo. The pill market is seen ballooning to nearly $100 billion by the end of the decade, according to analysts, and a strong showing in ORION could cement Novo\u2019s position. Two other candidates also get airtime today: a high-dose Wegovy variant and CagriSema, a combination therapy designed to hit multiple satiety signals that management dubs the next generation of obesity treatment.<\/p>\n
The commercial front is already providing tailwinds. Since the US launch of oral Wegovy in January 2026, over 2 million prescriptions have been written. Citi has responded by lifting its sales forecast for the oral pill to 50 billion Danish kroner, though the bank kept its neutral rating, citing intense competition. Sydbank called the start \u201cstronger than expected\u201d, arguing it gives Novo Nordisk a timing advantage over Eli Lilly\u2019s Foundayo. The FDA had approved the tablet in December last year.<\/p>\n
That operational momentum is showing up in the numbers. First-quarter obesity revenue climbed 22% on a currency-adjusted basis, prompting management to raise full-year guidance for both sales and operating profit. Shareholders are benefiting directly: a new buyback programme worth up to 15 billion kroner kicked off in February, and total payouts to equity holders are expected to exceed 60 billion kroner this year.<\/p>\n
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?<\/a><\/p>\n The data also highlight growing evidence in older patients. A pooled analysis of the STEP studies examined adults aged 65 and older taking a 2.4 mg dose of semaglutide. Over 68 weeks, average body weight fell 15.4% versus 5.1% on placebo. Nearly three in ten participants achieved a weight loss of at least 20%. Side effects were more pronounced, with serious adverse events at 19.0% compared with 12.7% in the placebo group \u2013 a reminder that the risk-benefit profile remains a key consideration for this age cohort.<\/p>\n Analyst reactions are mixed but tilted positive. TD Cowen pencilled in a $42 price target, pointing to US pricing pressure and the impact of the MFN agreement. SB1 Markets is more upbeat, raising its target to 350 kroner. Citi\u2019s revised price target of 290 kroner, up from 275, reflects the stronger oral Wegovy outlook but also the unchanged neutral stance on valuations.<\/p>\n The patent cliff is the lurking risk. Semaglutid exclusivity expires this year in several large markets, including India and China. In the US, protection runs until 2032. Novo Nordisk plans to defend its share through improved service offerings and by migrating patients to newer therapies. Meanwhile, a partnership with Amazon Pharmacy now offers same-day delivery for Ozempic tablets, broadening access especially as demand for oral GLP-1s accelerates.<\/p>\n