Kuld on alates augusti l\u00f5pust t\u00f5usnud 14% ning kaupleb praegu umbes 3870 dollari juures, mis t\u00e4hendab ligi 47% t\u00f5usu aasta algusest. Hinnat\u00f5us peegeldab elavnenud n\u00f5udlust b\u00f6rsil kaubeldavate fondide (ETF-ide), keskpankade ja v\u00e4iksemas osas ka spekulatiivsete investorite poolt.<\/p>\n
Goldmani anal\u00fc\u00fctiku Daan Struyveni s\u00f5nul v\u00f5ib kulla hinna t\u00f5sta \u00fcle 4000 dollari piiri kaks tegurit. Esimene neist on asjaolu, et spekulatiivne positsioneerimine on seni hinnat\u00f5usus m\u00e4nginud \u00fcllatavalt v\u00e4ikest rolli. Struyveni hinnangul seletab spekulatsioon vaid umbes \u00fchte protsendipunkti 14%-lisest t\u00f5usust alates 26. augustist. See viitab, et hinnakasv on tulnud peamiselt stabiilsematelt pikaajalistelt ostjatelt, j\u00e4ttes ruumi edasiseks t\u00f5usuks, kui spekulatiivne huvi peaks hoogustuma.<\/p>\n
Teiseks toob anal\u00fc\u00fctik v\u00e4lja l\u00e4\u00e4ne ETF-ide ootamatult tugeva n\u00f5udluse. Septembris suurenesid nende varad (kuld) 109 tonni v\u00f5rra, \u00fcletades kordades Goldmani mudeli prognoositud 17 tonni, mis p\u00f5hines USA langevatel intressim\u00e4\u00e4radel. See viitab, et anal\u00fc\u00fctikute hinnatud \u201epeamine t\u00f5usurisk\u201c \u2013 erainvestorite suurem hajutamine kullasse \u2013 on praegu toimumas.<\/p>\n
Kuna kulla ETF-id on arenenud turgude v\u00f5lakirjaturgudega v\u00f5rreldes endiselt v\u00e4ikesed, v\u00f5ib isegi kapitali v\u00e4ike \u00fcmberpaigutus fikseeritud tuluga v\u00e4\u00e4rtpaberitest kulla kasuks p\u00f5hjustada hinnale olulist lisasurvet, m\u00e4rkis Struyven.<\/p>\n
Investeerimispank r\u00f5hutas, et kuld on nende k\u00f5ige kindlam pikaajaline f\u00fc\u00fcsilise vara soovitus, viidates keskpankade p\u00fcsivalt tugevnenud n\u00f5udlusele, erasektori hajutamisest tulenevatele t\u00f5usuriskidele ning kulla headele riskimaandamisomadustele turulanguste ajal.<\/p>\n
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