{"id":163441,"date":"2026-04-26T20:03:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-26T20:03:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/163441\/"},"modified":"2026-04-26T20:03:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T20:03:11","slug":"foderaalreserv-kavatseb-hoida-intressimaarad-375-tasemel-kuna-turuosalised-hindavad-29-aprilli-fomc-kohtumise-toenaosuseks-99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/163441\/","title":{"rendered":"F\u00f6deraalreserv kavatseb hoida intressim\u00e4\u00e4rad 3,75% tasemel, kuna turuosalised hindavad 29. aprilli FOMC kohtumise t\u00f5en\u00e4osuseks 99%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Peamised j\u00e4reldused:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CME Fedwatch hindab Fedi intressim\u00e4\u00e4rade muutmataj\u00e4tmise t\u00f5en\u00e4osuseks 29. aprilli FOMC kohtumisel 99%, mis on langus v\u00f5rreldes kuu aega tagasi prognoositud 6,2% t\u00f5usuv\u00f5imalusega.<\/li>\n<li>Polymarketi kauplejad on paigutanud 20,9 miljonit dollarit 2026. aasta intressim\u00e4\u00e4rade langetamise turule, kusjuures 40% hindab, et sel aastal intressim\u00e4\u00e4rasid ei langetata.<\/li>\n<li>Kalshi n\u00e4itab 84% t\u00f5en\u00e4osust, et F\u00f6deraalreserv hoiab intressim\u00e4\u00e4rad juulis muutumatuna, kuna 2026. aasta m\u00e4rtsi tarbijahinnaindeks (CPI) 3,3% piirab intressim\u00e4\u00e4rade langetamise ootusi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> Kauplejad hindavad Fedi intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra muutmataj\u00e4tmist aprilli FOMC-koosolekul 99% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega, kuna Polymarket ja Kalshi ei n\u00e4ita suve jooksul intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra langust <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">CME Fedwatch Tool<\/a> n\u00e4itab 99% t\u00f5en\u00e4osust, et USA <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/et\/analuutik-vaidab-et-foderaalreserv-eirab-2026-aasta-majanduslanguse-marke\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">F\u00f6deraalreserv<\/a> hoiab oma sihtintressim\u00e4\u00e4ra 350\u2013375 baaspunkti juures, kui ta sel n\u00e4dalal, 29. aprillil, kokku tuleb. \u00dclej\u00e4\u00e4nud 1% peegeldab v\u00e4ikest v\u00f5imalust 25 baaspunkti suuruse t\u00f5usu jaoks. Intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra langetamise t\u00f5en\u00e4osus on null.<\/p>\n<p>See konsensus on p\u00fcsinud kindlana v\u00e4hemalt n\u00e4dala. Kuus tagasi oli pilt veidi teistsugune. Intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra t\u00f5stmise t\u00f5en\u00e4osus oli 6,2%, mis viitas sellele, et m\u00f5ned kauplejad kindlustasid end majandusandmete positiivse \u00fcllatuse vastu. See mure on vahepeal hajunud.<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-809567 size-full\" title=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-26-at-9-32-53-am_nwmk.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" width=\"2358\" height=\"1298\"\/>Allikas: CME Fedwatchi t\u00f6\u00f6riist 26. aprillil 2026. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/polymarket-newsart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Polymarketi<\/a> juuni FOMC <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-june-825\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">turg<\/a> n\u00e4itab sarnast pilti. Seal annavad kauplejad 93% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega, et 16.\u201317. juuni kohtumisel intressim\u00e4\u00e4rasid ei muudeta. 25 baaspunkti suurune langus on t\u00f5en\u00e4oline 4,5% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega, samas kui intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra t\u00f5us on 1,6%. Turu koguk\u00e4ive on olnud \u00fcle 10,5 miljoni dollari, kusjuures ainu\u00fcksi \u201e50+ baaspunkti langus\u201d kategooria on kogunud \u00fcle 2,8 miljoni dollari, hoolimata sellest, et selle implitsiitne t\u00f5en\u00e4osus on alla 1%.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarketi <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-july-181\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">juulikuu v\u00e4ljavaade<\/a> peegeldab veidi suuremat ebakindlust, kuigi valdav arvamus j\u00e4\u00e4b samaks. Tulemus \u201emuutusteta\u201d on 85% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega 28.\u201329. juuli FOMC kohtumisel. 25 baaspunkti suurune langus on 10%, t\u00f5us 3,4% ja suurem langus 2,4%. See turg k\u00e4ivitati 19. m\u00e4rtsil 2026 ja on sellest ajast alates registreerinud kogumahu 3,9 miljonit dollarit.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Kalshi<\/a> paralleelne juulikuu <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxfeddecision\/fed-meeting\/kxfeddecision-26jul\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">turg<\/a> j\u00e4\u00e4b samasse vahemikku. Seal annavad kauplejad 84% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega, et F\u00f6deraalreserv hoiab intressim\u00e4\u00e4rad 29. juuli kohtumisel muutumatuna. 25 baaspunkti suuruse languse t\u00f5en\u00e4osus on 12% ja t\u00f5usu oma 4%. Selle lepingu kogumaht on 79 441 dollarit.<\/p>\n<p>Konsensuse taga on 2026. aasta m\u00e4rtsi tarbijahinnaindeksi (CPI) n\u00e4itaja 3,3% v\u00f5rreldes eelmise aastaga ja t\u00f6\u00f6tuse m\u00e4\u00e4r 4,3%. Need n\u00e4itajad ei anna Fedi ametnikele p\u00f5hjust kumbagi suunda liikuda, ja kauplejad n\u00e4ivad sellega n\u00f5ustuvat.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00f5ige laiem \u00fclevaade 2026. aasta poliitikast p\u00e4rineb Polymarketi turult \u201eKui palju Fedi intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra langetusi on 2026. aastal?\u201d, mis on alates k\u00e4ivitamisest 2025. aasta septembris toonud kaasa 20,9 miljoni dollari suuruse kauplemismahtu. Aprilli l\u00f5pu seisuga on juhtiv tulemus null langetust, mille t\u00f5en\u00e4osus on 40%. \u00dche langetuse t\u00f5en\u00e4osus on 28% ja kahe langetuse oma 16%.<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-809571 size-full\" title=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" width=\"1952\" height=\"896\"\/>Allikas: Polymarket, 26. aprill 2026. <\/p>\n<p>Kalshi <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxratecutcount\/number-of-rate-cuts\/kxratecutcount-26dec31\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">samav\u00e4\u00e4rne turg<\/a> kajastab seda positsiooni. T\u00e4pselt null langust on esikohal 39,9% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega, millele j\u00e4rgneb \u00fcks langus 27,5% ja kaks langust 15,8% t\u00f5en\u00e4osusega. Selle turu kogumaht on j\u00f5udnud 3,18 miljoni dollarini.<\/p>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-809572 size-full\" title=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" width=\"1890\" height=\"1050\"\/>Allikas: Kalshi, 26. aprill 2026. <\/p>\n<p>M\u00f5lemad platvormid arvutavad oma aastase intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra alandamise turud v\u00e4lja sama raamistiku alusel. Iga 25 baaspunkti suurune alandamine loetakse \u00fcheks alandamiseks. 50 baaspunkti suurune muutus loetakse kaheks. Arvesse on v\u00f5etud ka plaaniv\u00e4lised erakorralised alandamised. Kalshi sulgeb oma turu 31. detsembril 2026, v\u00e4ljamaksed on kavandatud 1. jaanuariks 2027.<\/p>\n<p>Kauplejad j\u00e4lgivad j\u00e4rgmisena aprilli t\u00f6\u00f6h\u00f5ivearuannet ja uuendatud tarbijahinnaindeksi andmeid, et leida m\u00e4rke arvutuste muutumisest. Kuni nende numbrite saabumiseni on turu t\u00f6\u00f6h\u00fcpotees, et F\u00f6deraalreserv j\u00e4\u00e4b paigale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Peamised j\u00e4reldused: CME Fedwatch hindab Fedi intressim\u00e4\u00e4rade muutmataj\u00e4tmise t\u00f5en\u00e4osuseks 29. aprilli FOMC kohtumisel 99%, mis on langus v\u00f5rreldes&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":163442,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[14],"tags":[131,130,45771,37,33,35,34,36,32391,32392,27508,27509,27510,13102],"class_list":["post-163441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ari","tag-ari","tag-business","tag-central-bank","tag-ee","tag-eesti","tag-eesti-keel","tag-estonia","tag-estonian","tag-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-kalshi","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-united-states-us"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ee\/116472801319806132","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/163442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}