Artikli pealkiri: Monetary Policy or Macroeconomic Uncertainty: What is Really Driving the Business Cycle?<\/p>\n
Autorid:\u00a0
Benjamin Beckers – TalTech, Department of Economics and Finance\u00a0
\u00a0<\/p>\n
L\u00fchikokkuv\u00f5te:<\/p>\n
Uncertainty about the path of future interest rates has been found to have material effects on economic output. But interest rate uncertainty could reflect uncertainty about the strategy for the path of the policy rate (the central bank’s “reaction function”)
or uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals that the central bank is targeting. This paper aims to disentangle these two distinct sources of uncertainty. To this end I estimate a structural VAR that models explicitly the endogenous relationships between
key macroeconomic variables and forecaster uncertainty about interest rates, inflation and output growth. I identify the causal effects of uncertainty through a combination of sign restrictions, external variables, and narrative restrictions on the structural
shocks. I find that shocks to inflation and output growth uncertainty are contractionary, with the effects of inflation uncertainty being largest and most persistent. By contrast, I find no evidence for material macroeconomic effects of monetary policy uncertainty.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tallinna Tehnika\u00fclikooli majandusanal\u00fc\u00fcsi ja rahanduse instituudi avatud teadusseminarid toimuvad tavaliselt kuu teisel ja neljandal kolmap\u00e4eval nii kohapealse kui ka veebis osalemisv\u00f5imalusega, kui ei ole teatatud teisiti. Ettekanne kestab u 45 minutit, millele j\u00e4rgneb veerand tundi arutelu. Seminar toimub inglise keeles. Ettekande aluseks olev artikkel on \u00fcldjuhul k\u00e4ttesaadav seminaril kohapeal.\u00a0K\u00fcsimuste korral v\u00f5ib p\u00f6\u00f6rduda\u00a0seminaride koordinaatori Karsten Staehri [email\u00a0protected]<\/a> poole.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Artikli pealkiri: Monetary Policy or Macroeconomic Uncertainty: What is Really Driving the Business Cycle? Autorid:\u00a0Benjamin Beckers – TalTech,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":175436,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[131,130,37,33,35,34,36],"class_list":{"0":"post-175435","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ari","8":"tag-ari","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-ee","11":"tag-eesti","12":"tag-eesti-keel","13":"tag-estonia","14":"tag-estonian"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ee\/116557500023901420","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=175435"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175435\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/175436"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=175435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=175435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=175435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}