Natural gas remains a pillar of Europe’s energy system, essential for industry, building heating and electricity grid balance through thermal power plants. The summer period is typically used to replenish underground reserves, when prices are lower than in winter. This year, the pace of storage filling is worrying market observers ahead of the cold season.

Reserves Below Usual Levels

The average fill rate of European storage facilities should normally reach 75% to 80% at this point in the season, according to Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Yet according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, storage facilities across the continent are only 58% full, a level unseen since 2021, before the sharp reduction in Russian deliveries to Europe. Global gas capacity expansion continues nonetheless, as shown by the contract won by Siemens Energy to equip two 2.6 GW gas plants in Oman.

The European Union had already entered the summer injection campaign from a weakened position. Ronald Pinto, an analyst at Kpler, notes that underground stocks were only 28% full at the end of the previous winter, a level notably lower than in prior years. In the United States, gas demand keeps growing, as illustrated by the project launched by Georgia Power for 1,500 MW of gas at Plant Bowen.

Gulf LNG Weighs on Market Balance

The deterioration of the situation in the Middle East since late February has affected liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, particularly Qatari cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This constraint has pushed prices higher and prompted European buyers to delay purchases, hoping for a subsequent decline in rates, according to Kpler. This deferral has disrupted the usual economic signal for storage: winter delivery gas prices have remained artificially lower than summer prices, reducing the financial incentive for summer injection into underground caverns.

In its quarterly report published in the third quarter of 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global gas markets. The agency puts cumulative LNG supply losses between 2026 and 2030 at 140 billion cubic meters, factoring in immediate disruptions and medium-term effects on gas infrastructure.

Brussels Deems the 80% Target Achievable

The European Commission states there is “no immediate concern regarding gas supply security in the EU” ahead of winter. It notes that the situation differs from 2022, as Europe has increased its LNG import capacity and reduced gas consumption. According to Brussels, EU gas demand has fallen 17% compared to its level before the invasion of Ukraine.

The Commission considers that an 80% fill rate remains “technically achievable” and “sufficient to secure supply during winter.” The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) stated in July 2026 that the EU should increase its LNG imports by about 13% compared to 2025 levels to reach a 90% target before winter. According to the same analysis, an 80% target remains achievable with LNG imports comparable to those of 2025.

Prices Remain Exposed to Winter and Asian Cargoes

Several analysts nonetheless consider the market vulnerable. Antonia Syn, an analyst at Rystad Energy, estimates that supply risks remain elevated due to reduced LNG availability from the Middle East. Ronald Pinto believes the continent is better prepared than in 2022 to face prolonged disruptions, but cites several risk factors: incidents affecting Norwegian deliveries, problems with other sources important to the EU, a cold snap in the United States, or unplanned maintenance at American LNG terminals.

Anne-Sophie Corbeau anticipates upward pressure on prices, particularly if Qatar and the United Arab Emirates face difficulties exporting LNG through the still-blocked Strait of Hormuz. Ronald Pinto expects the European benchmark price to remain elevated through the end of the year, with monthly averages ranging between 55 and 62 €/MWh. Asia, particularly China, is directly competing with Europe for available LNG cargoes, with prices there higher, according to Anne-Sophie Corbeau.

The severity of winter and the level of wind power generation could also alter Europe’s gas balance. Anne-Sophie Corbeau notes that less full stocks, combined with a harsh winter and an additional disruption, would require considering energy conservation measures.