A widening pattern of incidents across Europe is raising questions about whether Moscow is testing how far the alliance will go.

Oleksandr Leonov, executive director of the Penta Center, said this on air on Ukrainian Radio.

Russia may step up armed hybrid provocations against European Union countries in an effort to cast doubt on NATO’s ability to guarantee collective security. This assessment was voiced on Ukrainian Radio by Oleksandr Leonov, executive director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies.

According to the expert, hesitation, indecision, or the absence of a firm response from Western countries may be perceived in the Kremlin as weakness. Russia is already expanding the geographical scope of its provocations against European countries, so NATO needs to agree on clear response mechanisms.

Russia is testing certain options, and it is clear that the threat is real. Such flights cover a very broad geographical area, from Norway and Sweden to Portugal. This needs to be discussed at the NATO level in order to develop appropriate response protocols. Each country responds in its own way.

– Oleksandr Leonov

NATO must demonstrate its readiness to respond

Oleksandr Leonov believes that the North Atlantic Alliance has sufficient tools to respond decisively to Russia’s actions. Among the possible steps, he named conducting exercises in the Baltic Sea and restricting the routes used by Russia’s shadow fleet.

In the expert’s view, statements by Russian officials about possible escalation are an attempt to test how prepared the West is to resist pressure and threats. A clear position from European states and NATO could reduce the room for further provocations.

So far, there has been no response from Russia to this. For Europe and the West as a whole, it is important to demonstrate that they are not afraid and do not react to Russian threats. Then Putin usually backs down. Russia does not have the capabilities to carry out these threats. The Baltic Sea is NATO’s internal sea. It is quite easy to block it to Russian tankers. If the West demonstrates its readiness for escalation, it will benefit EU countries. For Putin, it will be a sign that the West and Europe are prepared for a direct confrontation. This means Putin will not have an easy ride.

– Oleksandr Leonov

The expert is convinced that demonstrating the EU and NATO countries’ readiness to deliver a direct and coordinated response could become an important deterrent for Russia. In his assessment, such a signal would show the Kremlin that further escalation would have serious consequences for it.