Europe’s energy sector is facing a stress test unlike any it has ever seen before. Not only are the markets being battered by the latest in a long succession of geopolitical supply chain snags thanks to the war in Iran, but the continent is also facing blistering heat waves that are pushing the grid to its absolute limit and increasing the risk of rolling blackouts when temperatures are dangerously high. As the fastest warming continent in the world, Europe needs to adjust to extreme heat as the new normal, and it needs to adapt its power supply accordingly.
“We have to plan our power system so that this might be our new reality,” Zsuzsanna Pató, power system lead for Europe at the non-profit Regulatory Assistance Project, recently told Bloomberg. “We don’t usually have such hot spells, but we just have to get used to it.”
The nuclear industry is facing the hardest test of all, with rising temperatures forcing reactors offline just when their output is most needed. Many nuclear power plants rely on rivers for their cooling systems, and when rivers are too hot or the waters are too low, operators are forced to reduce or shut down output altogether. Earlier this month, Hungary had to reduce output at the Paks nuclear power plant to just over 10 percent and just barely avoided total shutdown, which would have effectively cut off 40 percent of the country’s electricity generation overnight. Even though the Paks plant was never fully taken offline, the sharp reduction in production led to an enormous swing in electricity prices across the region, reaching a blistering €500 a megawatt-hour. And the hottest weeks of the summer could still be yet to come.
In July, France had to reduce output and shut down nuclear reactors at a record pace without sufficient and safe water supplies to cool its reactors as the country recorded its hottest day ever on record. While this might seem to suggest that nuclear power development is incompatible with rising temperatures without overhauling the way we cool them, some experts contend that these reductions are a symptom of policy rather than technological limitations.
“What the heatwave revealed was not a failure of nuclear technology, but rather a narrow, well-understood constraint in how some riverside plants are allowed to operate during extreme heat,” The Conversation recently reported. Furthermore, despite curbing output at reactors across the country, France still had “sufficient generation capacity to meet electricity demand,” according to grid operator RTE.
However, the reduction did have critical impacts on consumers within and outside of France. “It is true that prices rose, exports to neighbouring countries fell, and the grid relied more heavily on gas as well as oil-fired reserve generation,” The Conversation conceded. “Yet these were temporary strains, and at no point was France’s supply in any kind of serious jeopardy.”
However, price spikes and energy poverty are a major concern for consumers, who can expect heat waves to keep getting hotter and more frequent. And turning down the air conditioning is not an option when the mercury is this high. A study from The Lancet found that nearly half a million people in the world died of heat every year between 2000 and 2019, most of whom were elderly. Under these conditions, air conditioning is not a luxury but a life-saving necessity, preventing an estimated 190,000 deaths each year.
Utilities therefore need to adapt their models to account for the changing climate as well as for continued geopolitical volatility, both of which are wreaking havoc on energy markets and squeezing consumers. “Utilities can adapt by planning for summer peaks, making cooling demand more flexible, reinforcing grids for high temperatures, deploying batteries and demand response, and climate-proofing power plants’ cooling systems,” Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at economic and policy think tank Bruegel, recently told MIT Technology Review.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com