Russia is about to escalate its war against Ukraine and step up hybrid attacks on Kyiv’s allies in Europe, damning new intelligence suggests.
Western intelligence officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “stealth mobilisation” of thousands of Russians after this weekend’s parliamentary elections, according UK newspaper The Telegraph.
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They said the Russian leader has been backed into a corner after his forces suffered 1.5 million casualties, including 500,000 fatalities in Ukraine and the invasion became a stalemate.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is recruiting between 1100 and 1200 people per day but is suffering 1374 casualties per day in Ukraine.
“What we are seeing is administrative preparations to make it possible to do it, if that was the decision,” one intelligence source told the paper.
European leaders have been warning the Kremlin’s hybrid war against the West is about to ramp up.
It comes amid reports the US is considering a major withdrawal of troops from Europe. It’s believed the Pentagon wants to pull between 25,000 and 40,000 troops, as well as military aircraft, ships and weapons away from the region.
The US has denied the report but it’s understood NATO’s senior commanders held talks with Pentagon chiefs about US troop posture, the alliance said.
If Putin does order a mobilisation, he could deploy forces at bases along Russia’s western borders with NATO. It’s believed Putin could call up an extra 300,000 people, though questions have been raised over whether Moscow has enough military kit to equip them.
Europe living in fear
It comes as European governments change the way they speak about the Russian threat. In the last 48 to 72 hours, European capital have issues statements on mobilisation across NATO’s eastern flank.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says intelligence shared by Poland, Ukraine and NATO indicates Russia could soon conduct drone or missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine while attempting to portray them as accidents, according to the paper.
In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron held a three-hour meeting with France’s intelligence chiefs and political leaders warning them the Russian hybrid threat had intensified.
Meanwhile, Estonia said it is ready to close its border with Russia if a general mobilisation is called, according to the country’s state broadcaster, ERR News.
Lithuania recently approved a mass evacuation plan for its citizens in the event of a conflict.
Latvia has begun fortifying their eastern borders with Russia while Finland raised the military-reserve age to 65 and removed the legal barrier preventing allied nuclear weapons from entering Finnish territory, according to Our Country, Our Choice, an American think tank.
It said the EU is advising 50 million residents to maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, medicine, cash and emergency supplies.
Meanwhile, in the UK, work has begun on the government’s so called “war book,” which hasn’t been updated in decades, according to the BBC.
Switzerland’s government adopted a new security policy strategy in response to the “deteriorating security situation” in Europe.
‘Tomorrow is at stake’
On Friday, Mr Macron ordered officials to devise a plan to protect the country’s critical infrastructure and defence industries from potential sabotage.
Speaking about the increasing threat posed by Russia to Europe, Mr Macron said, “In recent weeks, the Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and against France has intensified.
“The intent is to intimidate us and break our effort to support Ukraine. The result will be the exact opposite. We are not intimidated because we know that our security today and tomorrow is at stake in Ukraine.”
Mr Macron summoned French leaders to a three-hour meeting with intelligence chiefs on Friday, which left some politicians shaken.
“I’ve just emerged from nearly three hours of briefing and discussions with the President of the Republic and the intelligence and security services,” Guillaume Lacroix, the president of the Radical Party of the Left, wrote on X.
“At the age of 50, I have rarely felt such vertigo. Vertigo at the gravity of the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, at the predatory madness driving the world toward chaos.”
He said France was facing a “grave” situation, adding, “Our democracy, our country must already face up to it today and will have to stand firm tomorrow.”
It comes as alleged hybrid attacks against Kyiv’s allies in Europe continue to escalate.
Earlier this month, Germany blamed Moscow for an attempted explosive-drone attack at Leipzig airport and said it was shutting a Russian consulate and ending the contract for a cultural centre in Berlin.
German authorities are also investigating a professionally prepared weapons cache discovered in woodland near Berlin, two handguns and ammunition that officials say were intended for future attacks, including possible links to a foreign intelligence service.
It comes as Belarus is said to be conducting military drills near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, including areas around the strategically critical Suwałki Gap.
And earlier this week, a NATO fighter shot down a suspected Russian attack drone after it entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus.
In Spring 2026, allied forces stopped an alleged plot to cut subsea cables near Svalbard. In September, a Russian frigate fires flares towards a Danish military helicopter.