When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe faced a cold winter and a sudden energy crisis, and it turned to Norway as it desperately tried to shift away from its dependency on cheap Russian energy.
Now, the war in Iran has threatened global oil supplies and sent prices soaring. Whether or not the war is resolved quickly, those effects could be lasting.
The crisis has once again exposed Europe’s energy vulnerability and raised the question of whether Norway could expand its role as a dependable and friendly energy source right from within Europe.
It’s not as easy as it may seem.
First, the Norwegians say that to boost production they would need to drill more in the Arctic, an area vulnerable to climate change.
And second, there’s brewing discomfort in Norway, which has built an image as an international peacemaker, with continuing to profit from war.
A Fragile Frontier
Norway is the biggest oil producer by far in Western Europe and exports 95 percent of its oil and nearly all of its gas to the European Union and Britain.
At the moment, Europe gets 30 percent of its oil from Norway.
Its output of two million barrels a day of oil can’t compete with the likes of Russia, Saudi Arabia or the United States, and it ranks 12th globally as an oil producer.
But it has other things going for it.
“Our product is not oil and gas,” said Snorre Skjevrak, a state secretary in Norway’s energy ministry, but “stability, reliability and a long-term perspective.”
Norway’s rigs are already pumping at maximum capacity. Norway’s oil companies want to expand operations in the Arctic, where most of its supplies are located.
But environmental groups worry about drilling in a region that has been made increasingly fragile by climate change.
They also worry about the risks of an accident in one of the most pristine and hardest-to-reach stretches of the planet.
The government, which owns a majority stake in Norway’s largest company, says exploration is environmentally sound.
“What you call the Arctic, we call Norway,” Mr. Skjevrak said. “It’s not some distant place for us.”
The Norwegian Paradox
For many Norwegians, the perception of profiting from the war does not sit well with the nation’s image of itself as international peace broker and home of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Norway has made an extra $5 billion since the war in Iran broke out in February, and economists expect it will make even more. In Oslo, the stock market hit a record high as oil prices spiked and shares in Norwegian oil companies soared.
“It’s the best Q1 since 1989 for Norway,” said Robert Naess, director of investments at Nordea, a Nordic bank.
Norway is now making $185 million (or 1.8 billion Norwegian kroner) a day in excess revenue from oil and gas, Mr. Naess said. If the instability in the Persian Gulf continues, Norway could make another $6 billion, he estimated.
In 2024, two years into the war in Ukraine, the Norwegian government announced that the country’s energy industry had made more than $100 million in extra revenue.
The government revealed those numbers only after the opposition Green Party demanded transparency. The backlash was instant.
“We took quite a P.R. hit when the war in Ukraine started,” said Cecilie Langum Becker, who writes an economics column for Norway’s national media outlet, NRK.
This time around, Norway’s leaders tried to head off any criticism. Jens Stoltenberg, Norway’s finance minister and a former NATO chief, told Norwegians that while they had to accept the “paradox” of vast fortunes being made during a war, Norway was still “best served by peace.”
But that has not been enough to stave off moral questions.
“The brutal reality is when the world burns, the money flows into our state budget,” Ms. Langum Becker said.
An Alluring Alternative
Norway doesn’t need its own oil because 98 percent of its electricity is from renewable energy, and it is one of the world’s leading adopters of electric vehicles.
But it does want to keep selling oil for as long as it can.
Production on the Norwegian shelf will naturally decline by the 2030s, so Norway has said it will keep exploring new options.
In March, Equinor, Norway’s largest oil company, said it had begun drilling for natural gas off the coast of Brazil. Last year, Equinor announced that its northernmost rigs in the Arctic Circle began producing oil.
Despite the hand-wringing over war-driven profits, Norwegian public opinion about its oil industry is beginning to shift. It’s no longer seen as embarrassing to work in the industry, Ms. Langum Becker said. Just a few years ago, energy executives, under pressure from their children, were quitting their jobs.
Analysts say the war in Iran is changing perceptions, too. “Whatever direction” the conflict goes, said Guillaume Delaby, who heads global oil services at Bernstein, an advisory group, “it is probably likely that the Middle East may not be seen as a safe oil market.” And Norway will remain an alluring alternative.
Henrik Pryser Libell contributed reporting from Oslo, and Jeffrey Gettleman from London.