A new study estimates that repeated summer heat waves across Europe led to more than 50,000 deaths and attributes nearly two-thirds of that toll to warming driven by burning coal, oil, and gas, according to CBC News.
In the researchers’ analysis, 32,619 of the 50,391 heat-related deaths would not have happened without the additional heat produced by climate change.
Here’s what to know
A Nature Health paper looked at heat-related deaths in 854 European cities during heat waves in June, July, and August.
The authors estimated that the death toll was 71% higher than in the previous deadliest summer in their dataset, when 29,480 people died in 2022.
Italy, France, Spain, and Germany recorded the highest number of deaths.
Study co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London, said the most intense period ran from June 17 to July 1, when temperatures were 5.3 degrees Celsius (9.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.
Older adults were hit hardest.
More than half of those who died were 85 or older. Still, the danger was not limited to seniors, and the study also found that extreme heat was linked to more than 800 deaths among people ages 20 to 44.
Even so, the researchers said the total was likely an underestimate because it excluded a deadly May heat wave and the included cities represent only about 40% of Europe’s population.
More background
To separate natural summer heat from climate-driven heat, the researchers compared no-climate-change model runs with what happened this summer.
The difference, they said, shows how many deaths were caused by the warming effect of heat-trapping pollution.
Lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, warned that Europe is now 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and is warming faster than any other continent.
She added that heat-related deaths linked to global warming have risen from roughly 45% in the early 2000s to 65%. The team also had to model the baseline death toll because heat’s role is frequently missed and often absent from death certificates even when it is a major factor.
Konstantinoudis noted the group compared its estimates with government-agency data, including an estimate of 2,700 excess deaths during British heat waves in May and June, nearly matching the United Kingdom’s health statistics agency figure of 2,800.
Extreme weather events such as heat waves — the deadliest form of extreme weather — directly endanger public health, while overlapping disasters can make communities even less safe. Summer wildfires in France and Spain forced more than 300,000 people to leave their homes.
Cities and infrastructure not built for these temperatures face growing pressure to invest in emergency protections, access to cooling, and public health support.
What can be done?
Experts quoted in the report emphasized that adaptation needs to happen quickly.
Dr. Courtney Howard, a Canadian emergency room physician and president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, addressed the core issue directly.
“We need to prepare for the heat we cannot now avoid, with urgent investments in heat early-warning systems, equitable access to low-carbon cooling, and neighborhood buddy systems that check on and support people most at risk — while rapidly reducing the fossil fuel use driving the crisis.”
Barnes also said some European cities were as much as 12 degrees Celsius (21.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.
“Much of Western and Northern Europe, our infrastructure is just not designed to cope with the sort of temperatures that we are seeing now because of the effects of human-caused warming,” she said.
Outside experts also stressed that adaptation alone will not be enough.
Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison said communities need better cooling and stronger protections for vulnerable residents as extreme heat becomes more frequent.
At the same time, Patz and Howard said the root cause must still be addressed: fossil fuel use that traps more heat in the atmosphere and pushes already hot summers into deadly territory.
“For many people, it’s certainly the case that that extra two-and-a-half degrees [Celsius] of warming is what’s going to tip those temperatures from uncomfortable to dangerous and potentially deadly,” Barnes explained.
Where can I learn more?
Extreme heat is already straining health systems and daily life as the climate warms. These articles cover record-breaking heat in Europe, global warnings about worsening heat and extreme weather, and the people most at risk.
• Across Europe, deadly heat is obliterating records, closing schools, and overwhelming unprepared communities.
• Worldwide, deadly weather phenomena are intensifying, and scientists say defenses must scale quickly.
• In major cities, extreme heat poses a grave danger to isolated residents.
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