Europe is undergoing a significant demographic shift as the Muslim population continues to grow across several countries, with projections pointing to further expansion by 2050. New figures cited by Spanish publications La Razon and La Gaceta show that the number of Muslims in Europe, excluding Russia and Turkey, has more than doubled since 2000, while declining birth rates among native populations are adding to the continent’s changing demographic profile.

According to data published by La Razon and cited by La Gaceta, Europe’s Muslim population, excluding Russia and Turkey, increased from approximately 15 million around 2000 to 32.5 million today. Figures from the Pew Research Center indicate that the broader Muslim population, including Russia, reached 46 million in 2020, representing a 16 per cent increase from 2010.

Spain has recorded a notable rise in its Muslim population. Data from the CEU-CEFAS Demographic Observatory puts the figure at between 2.4 million and 2.5 million by early 2025, accounting for approximately five per cent of the country’s total population. Of these, an estimated 1.79 million are first-generation immigrants, while around 680,000 were born in Spain to at least one Muslim parent.

Italy’s Muslim population has reached approximately 2.7 million. In Sweden, the Muslim share of the population increased from around four per cent in 2010 to eight per cent in 2020. Muslims accounted for approximately seven per cent of Germany’s population in 2020. In England and Wales, census figures show that the Muslim population rose from 2.7 million in 2011 to 3.9 million in 2021.

Projections point to further growth by 2050

Demographic projections suggest that the Muslim share of Europe’s population could continue increasing even without additional migration, owing to differences in birth rates between Muslim communities and other population groups.

Research from the Pew Research Center, previously cited by Remix News, estimated that Europe’s Muslim population could reach 75 million by 2050 under a scenario involving sustained high fertility and continued immigration. The projection points to the potential scale of demographic change over the coming decades.

Muslim influencer Mohammed Hijab has publicly encouraged Muslims in Western countries to have larger families. Responding to Elon Musk on X, he wrote, “Muslims of the West, get married and have many kids try and aim for 5 minimum that is what these fragile far-right anti-Muslims hate the most.”

At the same time, several European countries are experiencing falling birth rates and ageing populations. Thilo Sarrazin, a former member of the Bundesbank’s executive board and author of the 2010 book Deutschland schafft sich ab (Germany Is Abolishing Itself), has predicted that by 2070, 80 per cent of births in Germany will be to mothers who are not German.

France is also confronting a demographic downturn. In 2025, the country recorded a negative natural population balance for the first time since the end of the Second World War, meaning deaths exceeded births. Figures cited in the report indicate that more than 21 per cent of newborns in France were given Arab-Muslim first names in 2020.

Poland, meanwhile, has been grappling with its own demographic crisis. Together, these developments highlight the contrasting demographic trends across Europe, where population growth, Muslim migration, fertility rates and declining births among established populations are expected to influence the continent’s social and political landscape in the decades leading up to 2050.