ECB Vice-President's Final Interview: Energy Shock vs 2021-2022 Inflation, Iran Conflict, and Fiscal Warnings - News and Statistics

May 12, 2026

The outgoing Vice-President of the European Central Bank, whose eight-year term is ending during the second energy price shock in four years, has drawn a clear distinction between the current situation and the inflation surge of 2021-2022, as stated in an interview published by the ECB on May 12, 2026. He rejected the idea that history is repeating itself, noting that interest rates are now positive, the ECB is in quantitative tightening mode, and fiscal policy is in a totally different position compared to the extremely expansionary stance of the earlier period.

The Vice-President acknowledged that the ECB was late to act in 2021-2022, attributing the delay partly to excessive academic debate about the drivers of inflation. He stressed that while a theoretical foundation for decisions is important, action should not be postponed for such discussions.

Regarding the next interest rate move, he called for prudence, arguing that the ECB needs more clarity about the conflict in Iran and should wait for new projections in June. He expressed concern that the impact of the energy shock on growth will become much more visible in the coming weeks, and that consumer sentiment has already dropped, which could translate into weaker demand and activity. He declined to pre-empt any rate decision.

The Vice-President noted that financial markets have so far taken the conflict in stride, discounting a benign scenario of a short conflict without recession, which he described as positive. However, he warned that if markets are wrong and the conflict is not resolved quickly, there is a potential downside risk.

On second-round effects, he reported that wage tracker data show the situation is stable, with no meaningful increase in wage claims, and inflation expectations have not been unsettling.

Reflecting on his tenure, he highlighted the deep divisions within the Governing Council in 2019 as the toughest moment, emphasizing the importance of a united governing body. He praised ECB President Lagarde for always seeking consensus, which he called a guiding principle for the institution.

The Vice-President expressed concern about limited fiscal space in the euro area, noting that the combination of increased defence spending, mitigation measures for energy prices, and declining growth will lead to a deterioration of fiscal positions. He warned that markets cannot be taken for granted and that overlooking this risk would be a mistake, though he did not foresee a new government debt crisis, merely the possibility of higher yields and wider spreads.

He confirmed that the ECB has never discussed activating the Transmission Protection Instrument and said he does not think the institution will reach that point.

On Germany, he described the euro area’s largest economy as facing big challenges, including energy and an export-oriented model amid deglobalisation, and argued that the German government needs to carry out reforms. He expressed support for cross-border consolidation in banking, stating that opposition to specific transactions, such as UniCredit’s plans for Commerzbank, undermines the credibility of the savings and investments union. He recommended treating the euro area as a single jurisdiction with free capital flow and common deposit insurance.

Discussing Spain’s high growth rates, he attributed the performance to reforms implemented 10 to 15 years ago and noted that more than half of Spain’s growth is due to migration-driven population increases. However, he pointed to costs such as pressure on the rental market, where regulation limits supply, and a persistent gap in GDP per capita and low productivity.

As a final message, the Vice-President advised future central bankers not to live in an ivory tower, urging them to stay in touch with reality and to balance economic models with equally important judgement.

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

REPORT DESCRIPTION
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

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3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
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UNSATURATED MARKETS
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports

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EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

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