A study covering nearly seven decades of Eurovision entries explores the unpredictability of the world’s largest and most-watched music competition.

© EBU / ORF

It all started in 1956 as a bold experiment in TV broadcasting. As the Eurovision Song Contest(opens in new window) turns 70 this year, it has become a major extravaganza that brings together talented, eccentric artists from dozens of countries in Europe and beyond to battle for the annual musical crown.

Critics mock Eurovision because of its kitsch culture and histrionics. But this massive TV spectacle that draws around 160 million viewers worldwide has put the careers of mega artists such as ABBA and Celine Dion on the map. It pushes boundaries, and it has a huge impact on LGBTQ+ culture. It’s known as much for its outlandish outfits and over-the-top performances as for its geopolitical tensions, controversies and boycotts.

Love it or hate it, the biggest live music event’s widespread influence is undeniable. A research team from Switzerland and the United States examined how participating countries and organisers have mutually learned from each other over the decades, and how this shared knowledge has manifested in the competition itself. The findings were published in the journal ‘Royal Society Open Science’(opens in new window).

The winning formula

The researchers analysed entries from 1956 to 2024, covering over 1 700 songs from 51 countries. They used audio data from Spotify to assess traits such as danceability and acousticness, as well as AI to categorise musical genres and to detect the emotional themes in each song’s lyrics.

Study results showed that singing in English, choosing the pop genre, taking full advantage of danceability and using more lyrics were the ticket to success. Countries learned these lessons over decades by observing winning and losing entries. They then adapted their entries accordingly.

However, when this formula for success gained widespread use, it no longer ensured victory and merely became the minimum needed to remain competitive.

“What was once a competitive edge is now the standard,” commented Arthur Capozzi, postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zürich, in a news item(opens in new window). “English-language pop songs with a danceable beat become a basic requirement.”

Expect the unexpected

Spain, France, Italy and Portugal seem to have deliberately resisted the English-language advantage, likely valuing cultural identity and language promotion over victory. The paper authors contend that this aligns with prioritising national culture and native language over sheer competitiveness.

“They’re outliers, in that they keep on singing in their own language, even though that’s not one of the established success factors,” added Capozzi. The reason for this is that these countries are strategically using their cultural identity to distinguish themselves from the pack.

Organisers are adapting and learning over the years, too. “There’s no one formula for success that will always work, neither for the participating nations nor for the organisers,” stated Dirk Helbing, professor of computational social science at ETH Zürich. That’s why Eurovision is implementing targeted changes to sustain strong interest in the competition.

No matter, Eurovision continues to evolve. “It has to – in order to stay interesting,” he concluded. And it’s likely to change suddenly and without reason, with a few surprises along the way. “We haven’t found a formula that guarantees success.”

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