The article was shared<\/a> on social media by Richard Tice \u2013 deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party \u2013 along with a number of prominent rightwing<\/a> commentators<\/a>.<\/p>\n Tice claimed that \u201cnet stupid zero is contributing to rising temperatures, not helping\u201d, adding that \u201cwe have been gaslit and lied to\u201d.<\/p>\n GB News<\/a> followed up with its own article, incorrectly headlined: \u201cBritain\u2019s scorching heatwaves caused by falling pollution levels, researchers find.\u201d<\/p>\n Scientists tell Carbon Brief that the framing of heatwaves being \u201ccaused\u201d by declining air pollution is \u201cwrong\u201d.<\/p>\n While a drop in pollution has reduced the cooling impact it has had in the past, the scientists say, Europe\u2019s summer heatwaves are primarily becoming more extreme \u201cas a result of greenhouse-gas-induced warming\u201d.<\/p>\n Another scientist adds that \u201cany attempt\u201d to link this research to net-zero policies is \u201csimply wrong\u201d.<\/p>\n Fast warming<\/p>\n The extensive reporting around Europe\u2019s heatwaves in recent months has often mentioned that Europe is the world\u2019s fastest-warming continent<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The new study in question aims to unpack why Europe\u2019s summer temperatures are rising more quickly than other regions of the northern hemisphere\u2019s mid and high latitudes.\u00a0<\/p>\n The research \u2013 published in Geophysical Research Letters<\/a> \u2013 explores the role of air pollution<\/a> and, specifically, how it affects circulation patterns in the atmosphere.\u00a0<\/p>\n (The study focuses on long-term trends in European summers and does not include the very recent heatwaves.)<\/p>\n Human-caused emissions of aerosols \u2013 tiny, light\u2011scattering particles produced mainly by burning fossil fuels \u2013 have long acted to \u201cmask<\/a>\u201d global warming. This is largely because they absorb or reflect incoming sunlight and influence the formation and brightness of clouds.\u00a0<\/p>\n To understand how the climate of Europe \u2013 or any region \u2013 is changing, scientists need to take into account a whole range of factors, says Prof Bj\u00f8rn Samset<\/a>, a research professor at Norway\u2019s Center for International Climate Research<\/a> (CICERO), who was not involved in the work.<\/p>\n This includes \u201cgreenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use change, natural variability and how they all interact\u201d, he says, adding:<\/p>\n \u201cThe effects of air pollution on circulation, which is the topic here, has long been difficult to pin down.\u201d<\/p>\n As European countries improved their air quality through the second half of the 20th century, the cooling effect of aerosols has gradually been removed.<\/p>\n This can boost heatwaves in two ways \u2013 directly, by letting more sunlight reach the land surface and, indirectly, by influencing the jet stream<\/a>.<\/p>\n Using hundreds of simulations from nine climate models<\/a>, the new study finds that a decline in aerosols is resulting in more frequent \u201cquasi-stationary Rossby waves\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n Rossby waves are huge meanders in the jet stream. Occasionally, they become slow-moving \u2013 or \u201cquasi-stationary\u201d \u2013 which allows weather systems to get stuck over one region, leading to prolonged heatwaves.<\/p>\n These circulation changes have contributed to Europe\u2019s rapidly warming summers.<\/p>\n However, while Europe\u2019s heatwaves are being influenced by declining aerosols, it is \u201cwrong\u201d to say they are being \u201ccaused\u201d by them, says Prof Erich Fischer<\/a>, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich<\/a>.<\/p>\n Fischer, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief:<\/p>\n \u201cHeatwaves are caused by high-pressure systems and are now much more frequent and intense because they are happening in a climate that is much warmer than 100 years ago as a result of greenhouse-gas-induced warming.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe paper shows that the greenhouse-gas-induced summer warming had been temporarily masked by air-polluting aerosols. The full extent for European summers only becomes visible now as the air-polluting aerosols have declined.\u201d<\/p>\n Samset adds:<\/p>\n \u201cAir pollution never causes or removes global warming, it only temporarily moderates it.\u201d<\/p>\n Study lead author Dr Pedro Rold\u00e1n\u2010G\u00f3mez<\/a>, an associate researcher at the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre<\/a>, is quoted in the Daily Telegraph saying that \u201cmost\u201d of the \u201cexcess warming\u201d in Europe, beyond that of comparable regions in the northern hemisphere, can be linked to declining aerosols.<\/p>\n But, earlier in the article, the newspaper interprets this as, simply, \u201cmost of the extra heat experienced in Britain and Europe\u201d is down to air pollution.\u00a0<\/p>\n GB News uses a similar phrasing, reporting that \u201cmuch of the additional warming across Britain and western Europe since the 1980s is linked to the sharp decline in airborne particles known as aerosols\u201d.<\/p>\n This is \u201cmisleading\u201d, says Fischer, while Roldan-Gomez tells Carbon Brief that this is a \u201ctricky point\u201d, which \u201ccould lead to wrong interpretations if not properly explained\u201d. He adds:<\/p>\n \u201cThe contribution of greenhouse gases is, in any case, the most important factor.\u201d<\/p>\n Cleaner air<\/p>\n The Daily Telegraph\u2019s article was seized upon by Reform\u2019s Richard Tice to claim that \u201ccleaner air\u201d was causing higher temperatures, rather than CO2.<\/p>\n This continued his position<\/a> \u2013 refuted by long-established climate science<\/a> \u2013 that CO2 does not drive global warming.\u00a0<\/p>\n Tice also claimed in his post that net-zero policies are \u201ccontributing to rising temperatures\u201d. Tice appears to be linking declining air pollution to a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.<\/p>\n Samset points out that net-zero became a goal \u201cdecades later\u201d than the cumulative efforts to reduce air pollution since the 1980s and that it is \u201csimply wrong\u201d to link it to the study.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe scientific community will keep working to understand how greenhouse gas warming and air pollution interact,\u201d he says, but \u201cnothing we do will change the fact that the consequences of global warming are due to human-induced CO2 emissions\u201d.<\/p>\n Fischer adds:<\/p>\n \u201cLet us not forget that cleaning up air-polluting aerosols is highly desirable. According to the World Health Organisation, 7 million people still die prematurely every year due to air pollution.\u201d<\/p>\n Clean air legislation<\/p>\n Finally, the Daily Telegraph article and the study itself both attribute Europe\u2019s declining air pollution from the 1980s onwards to the Montreal Protocol<\/a>.<\/p>\n This is a \u201cglaring error\u201d, Samset says, and it is \u201csurprising that it wasn\u2019t picked up\u201d in the peer-review process for the study. He explains:<\/p>\n \u201cThe Montreal Protocol did not deal with air pollution. It dealt with ozone-depleting gases<\/a> and has been an extremely successful multi-national effort against environmental damage. \u201c<\/p>\n Clean air legislation was already in place in many European countries by the time the Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987, says Samset.\u00a0<\/p>\n In response, Rold\u00e1n\u2010G\u00f3mez says that while the protocol did not target aerosols specifically, it \u201cboosted the clean air policies\u201d.<\/p>\n Eight facts about air conditioning amid an overheated global debate <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Factcheck: What the UK car industry is not saying about EV targets <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Factcheck: Trump\u2019s false claims about the IPCC and \u2018RCP8.5\u2019 climate scenario <\/p>\n![\"Europe](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/europe\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/europe-has-warmed-ra-2500x1621.jpg\")
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Headline in the Daily Telegraph,<\/a> 22 July 2026.<\/p>\n![\"Headline](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/europe\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/heatwave_ragout.png\")
Headline on GB News<\/a>, 23 July 2026.<\/p>\n![\"Richard](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/europe\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Richard_Tice_tweet_v3.png\")
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