{"id":1091,"date":"2026-03-30T14:08:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T14:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/europe\/1091\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T14:08:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T14:08:09","slug":"european-equities-already-pricing-in-more-bearish-outlook-than-2022-energy-shock-says-jp-morgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/europe\/1091\/","title":{"rendered":"European equities already pricing in more bearish outlook than 2022 energy shock, says JP Morgan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>    <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/europe\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/2b53e63c762442cb56bf097a7cbda901.jpeg\" alt=\"European equities already pricing in more bearish outlook than 2022 energy shock, says JP Morgan\" loading=\"eager\" height=\"443\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-lglytj  loaded\"\/> European equities already pricing in more bearish outlook than 2022 energy shock, says JP Morgan Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock      <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">European equity markets are already reflecting a more pessimistic outlook relative to energy price moves than they did during the 2022 energy crisis, JP Morgan&#8217;s EMEA equity research team argues in a note published on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">The bank says investors are increasingly drawing comparisons with 2022, but identifies five significant differences that it believes make a repeat of that episode unlikely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">The Euro Stoxx 50 index has already fallen 11% as European natural gas prices have doubled from 30 to 60, a one-time move, whereas in 2022 the index fell 20% only after gas prices spiked more than four times, from 70 to 300.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">JP Morgan says this means equity price moves relative to gas price moves are materially more bearish in the current episode than they were in 2022.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">The bank acknowledges that newsflow remains a significant source of volatility, with market sentiment oscillating between signals of escalation and reports of productive negotiations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">On the economic backdrop, JP Morgan points out that wage growth is not accelerating as it was in 2022, when Covid-related labour supply constraints were still feeding through into inflation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Central banks also entered 2022 with policy rates well below neutral and were forced into an aggressive catch-up cycle, a dynamic the bank says does not apply today.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Consumer balance sheets and corporate pricing power, both strong in 2022, have also weakened, reducing the economy&#8217;s capacity to absorb higher input costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Eurozone growth momentum is running at around 1% currently, compared with more than 4% at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Perhaps most significantly, JP Morgan flags the growing anxiety around artificial intelligence and its potential impact on employment, arguing that this could prove the crucial variable determining whether a stagflation or a deflation narrative ultimately takes hold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">The bank adds that any early interest rate increases could quickly come to be read as a policy mistake, raising the probability of a subsequent reversal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"European equities already pricing in more bearish outlook than 2022 energy shock, says JP Morgan Proactive uses 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