When President Emmanuel Macron of France welcomed the leaders of Britain, Germany and Italy to the \u00c9lys\u00e9e Palace in Paris last Friday, it looked as if Europe had finally found a worthy role to play in the Iran war.<\/p>\n
They had gathered for a meeting of nearly 50 countries to discuss how to reestablish freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a complex military mission that plays to Europe\u2019s self-image as a guardian of international law in an increasingly lawless time.<\/p>\n
Yet after a tense weekend, Europe once again finds itself where it was when the war broke out<\/a> 52 days ago: watching from the sidelines<\/a>.<\/p>\n Iran and the United States still call the shots in the strait, a reality underscored even as the European leaders rallied their counterparts in Paris. Midway through the meeting, in Tehran, the Iranian foreign minister announced that his country had reopened the waterway, prompting President Trump to exult on social media that the strait was \u201cREADY FOR BUSINESS.\u201d<\/p>\n The two combatants then promptly undercut those statements, with the United States seizing an Iranian-flagged vessel trying to transit the strait while Iran fired warning shots at several ships, including one from France. The strait remains closed, stalling Europe\u2019s postwar plans.<\/p>\n \u201cThis has been quite an awful time for Europe,\u201d said C\u00e9lia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cAs long as the Europeans are not willing to play the brutal game, using force to achieve their objectives, they will not matter as much.\u201d<\/p>\n Europe\u2019s lack of influence on the war\u2019s endgame is partly a result of its decision not to get involved at the war\u2019s start<\/a>. European leaders declined to join the American-Israeli attacks on Iran after being neither consulted nor forewarned.<\/p>\n That decision is politically popular in Europe, but it has imposed burdens on leaders as the conflict inevitably washes up on their doorstep, causing economic pain across the continent<\/a>. Having spurned Mr. Trump earlier in the conflict, European governments have little leverage over him now.<\/p>\n \u201cEuropeans must learn to cope with this new era,\u201d said Arancha Gonz\u00e1lez Laya, who served as foreign minister of Spain from 2020 to 2021. \u201cEurope is not following the U.S. in Iran, and the U.S. is not letting Europe play a role in the Iran endeavor.\u201d<\/p>\n France embodies Europe\u2019s predicament. Despite refusing to join the attacks on Iran, it still found itself in the crossfire on Saturday when Iran fired shots at a French ship trying to exit the strait. Mr. Macron blamed \u201cboth sides\u201d for the incident, which caused no injuries or damage. He said it was partly prompted by Mr. Trump\u2019s decision to leave an American blockade in place, which caused the Iranians to renege on opening the waterway.<\/p>\n In Europe\u2019s Strait of Hormuz initiative, there is a clear echo of the Coalition of the Willing, the European operation to secure a postwar Ukraine<\/a>. Both are jointly led by Britain and France; both comprise an unwieldy roster of members; and neither will take effect until the fighting stops, a factor that is out of Europe\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n Thirteen months after being unveiled by Mr. Macron and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, the Coalition of the Willing exists mainly in blueprints. Some Western diplomats predict the plans will never come to fruition, given the hostility of Russia\u2019s president, Vladimir V. Putin, to the idea of Western troops in Ukraine.<\/p>\n The Hormuz mission is far more likely, experts say, in part because Mr. Trump himself has called on European countries to reopen the strait, by force if necessary. Escorting commercial ships and clearing the waters of mines is laborious and risky<\/a>, but it is generally considered less dangerous than deploying thousands of European troops to patrol Ukraine within range of Russian drones and artillery.<\/p>\n There is also an economic incentive to act quickly over Iran, given how the strait\u2019s closure has driven up energy costs across Europe. While European leaders agree that the conflict needs to stabilize before they commit military forces, French officials have said that they do not need to wait for a definitive peace settlement, provided they win assurances from Iran that no further ships will be attacked.<\/p>\n Part of the frustration for Europe, analysts say, is that it is not being taken seriously by either side. Iran has said little about the European initiative, focusing on Mr. Trump\u2019s threats. Mr. Trump all but ignored the Paris meeting, instead keeping up his vitriol against NATO<\/a>, a term he apparently uses interchangeably with Europe, for its lack of support.<\/p>\n \u201cNow that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help,\u201d he posted on social media. \u201cI TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, he said, adding: \u201cThey were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger!\u201d<\/p>\n French officials hope that their Strait of Hormuz initiative could help accelerate a broader settlement between Iran and the United States. Mr. Macron said last week it could help the cease-fire \u201cstick in the long term.\u201d<\/p>\n That is in keeping with the French president\u2019s vision of a \u201cthird way,\u201d one that seeks to position Europe midway between competing powers. That could mean brokering between China and the United States, when it comes to global trade, or between Iran and the United States, when it comes to the Middle East.<\/p>\n The problem with Mr. Macron\u2019s vision is that it is not fully shared by his fellow Europeans. Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany said that he wanted the United States to take part in the operation to reopen the strait. France has pointedly excluded Washington, saying the meeting in Paris last Friday was for \u201cnonbelligerents.\u201d<\/p>\n