Politics is never predictable, but it\u2019s safe to say that few foresaw the remarkable collapse of support for Ukraine on the Polish Right. The nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party previously established Warsaw as Kyiv\u2019s staunchest ally following Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion. Yet its move to a far more skeptical position is the most dramatic manifestation of a Europe-wide shift from bipartisan support for Ukraine to fierce tribal division.<\/p>\n
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Przemys\u0142aw Czarnek, the PiS prime ministerial candidate for next year\u2019s Polish elections, declared<\/a>: \u201cI am anti-Zelensky, and anti-Banderite.\u201d The latter is a reference to Zelensky\u2019s recent move to name a military unit after an ultranationalist force which committed atrocities against Poles during the Second World War. Czarnek added: \u201cWe must force the European Union\u2026 to stop financing any kinds of armaments for Ukraine or reconstruction in Ukraine at this moment, until Ukraine returns to the path of pro-human values.\u201d<\/p>\n On Thursday, he elaborated that<\/a> \u201cPoland\u2019s interest is that Russia does not win the war in Ukraine, that Ukraine respects our interests, and above all, that it rid itself of the cult of genocidal Banderism,\u201d which he said is \u201cidentical to German Nazism\u201d. His arguments have sparked a fierce national debate, but they are not outlandish in a Polish context. A survey<\/a> published on Thursday showed that only 52% of Poles agree with continuing to support Ukraine militarily. Out of the 45% who disagree, almost two-thirds are supporters of the nationalist opposition. And although Czarnek\u2019s statements rest upon specific Polish grievances, this dramatic shift in perceptions reflects a wider continental polarization.<\/p>\n Support for Ukraine has become totemic in the divide between pro-EU and anti-establishment forces, with approval of Zelensky in particular now largely confined to mainstream progressive parties. As a result, Ukraine is losing allies: on Tuesday, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev dramatically announced<\/a> his country\u2019s withdrawal from the Coalition of the Willing. Across the EU, support for Ukraine is a consistently divisive electoral topic. It defined<\/a> this year\u2019s Hungarian vote, and it is already influencing upcoming elections in Poland, France, Italy and Germany.<\/p>\n \u201cWar fatigue\u201d is typically cited as the driving force for this polarization but, in reality, the erosion of bipartisan support stems from the EU\u2019s fundamental battle of political narratives. A concerted effort from pro-EU progressive forces to claim ownership of the Ukrainian cause has seen populist parties and narratives relentlessly labeled \u201cpro-Russian\u201d. Progressives are portrayed as being on the right side of history, while nationalists are labeled as traitors.<\/p>\n