ISW: … it’s starting to finally dawn on the Russians: they are losing!

7 comments

1. First – clickbait.

   Operational and strategic situation develops, so now they not advancing, in few days they advancing and so on. They burned though a lot of resources last winter.

2. There is excellent reason to hope. The question is not whether Ukraine remains a free nation. They will remain free.

   The question is if they have to abandon any territory.

   Most European nations are very invested in making sure Ukraine gets everything back, and that Russia will pay for the damage done.

   Slava Ukraini!

3. Friendly reminder that not a single invader has won a stalemate. I repeat. Not. a. single. one.

4. Well there is a gamechanging technology nearly arrived. The key barrier is cost, but it will be AI onboard drones or controller drones that are reusable, commanding squadrons in synchronised, individually target tracking members of swarms. 

   These can trivially be made immune to EW jamming and high power MW energy weapons. And would have greater range and speed compared to fibre optic drones and higher payload. 

   That and effective low cost short range kinetic defenses against drones used with massed armour, can change the war to which ever side first deploys at scale. 

   Innovation has already neutralised the Russian advantage, so I dont think there is any reason to be skeptical of it, but it just wont be one single innovation, but how its packaged and mass produced into a few key products.

5. >I have to say that over the past 4 years it has driven me mad when people keep on saying things like “the Russian economy is about to collapse…”

   It has been repeated many times on this forum that this bloody horrific war was likely to turn into a long war of attrition. The phrase “it’s a marathon and not a sprint” has been repeated many times.

   I had hoped that the Russian economy would collapse by the end of this year – leading to military collapse by the following year. Due to Trump’s idiocy, Putin has been thrown a life line and the collapse will be delayed.

   But the writing has been on the wall for awhile for those who can see. If the war continues for several years, the inevitable result will be a sudden, extreme and violent collapse of the Russian empire.

6. Several things can be true at once. Russia will demographically and economically lose a prolonged war when Ukraine has sufficient economic and military support. The costs mount in the short term but really becomes foundational challenges in the medium to long term. Russia doesn’t have the industrial base, nor enough of a modernised economy to produce modern weaponry at the necessary volume. This can be compensated for in the short term, but only to an extent.

   While many of us think the support Ukraine receives is too little it effectively ensures Ukraine has a fighting chance, perhaps even a winning chance, and now that Ukraine seems to have found a theory for victory Russia increasingly is in a bind. And that is with Europe nowhere near having shifted its economy to a war economy preparing for a war of attrition.

   From such a perspective Russia has been losing economically, technologically, demographically but perhaps not militarily from almost day one. Every passing day whittles away at Russia’s economy and military advantage. So they are losing, the losses just need to compound to the point it directly affects the war effort. It just has to play out to the bitter end.

   I do though wonder if Russia’s military leadership from the lower levels to the very top dare truthfully inform the political leadership and Putin in particular the realities of the battlefields.

   Putin is also in a position without a clear and good exit strategy. For him and his family. That in itself could lead to a longer than expected or necessary war.

7. I hope Ukraine keeps growing the daily drone quantity and capabilities and us Western countries keep increasing our support that it’ll become evident the only option is for Russia to stop the war.