Most crime in England and Wales is falling – but the public think it’s rising. In fact, they are wrong about crime on nearly every measure: from how many people fall victim, to the ethnicity and nationality of offenders, and whether police numbers have increased or decreased, according to a major new study from the Policy Institute at King’s College London.
Based on two surveys of 1,797 and 2,164 UK adults, carried out with YouGov between 23 and 27 March 2026, Wrongful convictions? Misperceptions about crime among the UK public finds that while mistaken beliefs about crime are not confined to one political party, Reform UK supporters stand out as consistently most wrong – particularly on the ethnicity of those convicted of serious offences and the share of prisoners and offenders who are foreign nationals.
The study – part of a new research series called Mistaken Britain – also shows why these incorrect beliefs matter, with those who hold misperceptions about crime more likely to feel there is “two-tier justice” in the UK, more sceptical of the government’s ability to deal with crime, and more supportive of harsher, more punitive crime policies.
What the public get most wrong about crime
The public overestimate how many people are victims of crime. Asked what share of the population in England and Wales personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025, the public’s median guess is 27% – almost three times the reality of 9.7%.
Crime is falling, but the public think it’s rising. Of five crime types tested, only shoplifting has actually risen since 2010 (up around 70%) – and the public gets that one right (84% say it increased). On every other measure, perception and reality point in opposite directions: 83% think mobile phone theft has risen when it has fallen by around 70%; majorities think domestic burglary (56%) and vehicle theft (62%) have risen when both have fallen by around 50%; and 37% think murder has risen when it is down around 20%.
The public wrongly assume most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority. In fact, 64% are white – but the public’s median guess is just 45%. Conversely, they overestimate the ethnic-minority share, putting it at 55% when the reality is 35%.
Foreign nationals are assumed to be roughly double their true share of offenders. The public’s median guess is that foreign nationals make up 25% of the prison population (reality: 12%) and 30% of those cautioned for or convicted of sexual offences (reality: 15%) – around double the true proportion in both cases.
The public wrongly think police numbers have been cut. Police officer numbers rose around 20% between 2018 and 2025, but two-thirds (63%) think they fell, and only 18% correctly say they rose at all.
People think others are more fearful than they actually are. The public guess 60% of the population do not feel safe walking alone in their area after dark – significantly higher than the reality of 39%.
Recency shapes the public’s perception of terrorism deaths. The 2000s and 2010s had the fewest terrorist deaths of any decade in the last 50 years – yet the public rank them second and third most deadly respectively. 27% correctly identify the 1970s as the deadliest – the top single option selected – but 55% wrongly pick a more recent decade.
>British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows
Doesn’t help that the media don’t understand crime statistics and keep reporting on police recorded data (which most of the time isn’t a reliable indicator of actual crime rates and actual trends) rather than crime survey data (which shows a steady, long term decrease in crime rates since the 1990s).
‘The public wrongly assume most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority. In fact, 64% are white’
This isn’t going to help.
People’s perception is about how safe they feel, and how visible policing is. Not %s.
The thing with crime statistics is they are dependent on people actually reporting them. Many people “give up” on the minor things now, because nothing will get done, if the police even turn up, which erodes their opinion in how safe society is.
You may say the serious offences are down in numbers and %s, but that thankfully is not the interaction most people have with crime and police, thus doesn’t really shape opinion as much as the minor things- exactly like your shoplifting example.
Right wing media is desgined to keep us scared and afraid of one another so their benefactors can push their lackeys into government
The can’t be wrong with a subjective opinion.
The correct headline would be ‘police mis-record crime rates’.
Shoplifting has risen and you witness it more IRL
Sex crime has risen.
The public are right that ethnic minorities are massively overrepresented as offenders relative to their share of population.
The government refuses to publish crime stats by nationality. But it’s likely some nations are massively overrepresented and others underrepresented.
So the public are forgetting to mentally account for low crime amount Japanese women etc but completely correct that illegal immigrant men commit more
Interesting read, I’m starting to feel like people are so bought into the narrative that everything is getting worse that they just reject anything contrary to that.
I thought most people understood that proportionally certain ethnic groups commit a disproportionate amount of crime?
The media – in all its modern forms – are squarely to blame for this.
Controversy, anger and dissatisfaction generate waaaaaay more clicks & cash than the opposite.
Well ye of course… when they are told daily, headline after headline, narratives to manufacture consent and get votes for further authoritarian politics
# “Reform UK supporters stand out as most mistaken” yeah, no shit.
I saw 2 non white deliveroo guys cycling up hill in Glasgow without turning their pedals. This kind of low level flagrant disregard for the law is what people notice and then they remember the standout feature, they were not white.
For balance, the majority of people I have seen shoplifting in Glasgow have been wee white neds and they go unpunished as well.
Can’t the stats be skewed though? If crime drops significantly in major cities like London the overall rate may look like its gone down, despite the fact local crime has risen in smaller towns and cities.
That would lead to more of a feeling population wide that crime is going up?
Public perceptions of crime at odds with reported crime. It’s the sheer amount of unreported crime that is the problem. The police do fuck all so most people don’t report it.
Maybe the media should stop blasting unrealistic crime stats then, disproportionately covering certain demographs over others
Ignoring the very worst crimes here, but let’s look at more minor ones. How many people have seen someone steal from a supermarket and get away with it? When I’ve seen it, it wouldn’t have been be recorded in the police data because the police were never aware it even happened.
As for recording of ethnicity in crimes, it’s apparently recorded in 82% of cases. Anyone who watches or reads the news knows that if it’s a white male, they tell you it’s a white male. If it’s not, it’s usually a ‘British citizen’. It’s no wonder people jump to their own conclusion where the information isn’t transparent and consistent.
“Public believes the algorithm slop paid for by Russian disinformation campaigns over reality”
Why would I base my opinions on something silly like data when I can just believe whatever an angry man with a microphone or a rando on Facebook tells me?
According to the gov.uk figures for London, 53% of knife crimes are carried out by the 13% of the London population that is of black heritage. This 13% includes children and women, so the per capita offending rate for young males in this group is grossly disproportionate. No one is allowed to report this. I presume uncomfortable figure this will be removed asap.
I haven’t read the study but from the headline I’m going to guess it doesn’t mention per capita statistics? 🤷🏻♂️
No shit, how many times do you see news articles actually reporting on crime statistics compared to individual cases (anecdotes) which really are just local news at most, but make national news because they make for good clickbait/ragebait?
The crime rate might be down but reporting on individual cases is louder, more accessible, and more prevalent than ever. No matter how low the crime rate really drops, someone on steady diet of tabloid crime-related news stories (and poor critical and statistical thinking) will think it’s pernamently going up…
What happens to statistics when the police stop investigating crimes? Are the bike thefts still counted?
Is this not reported crime though? Does anyone bother to report anything non serious anymore? I see lawbreaking everyday but don’t bother to report it, shoplifting, kids on motorbikes, package thieves.
This thread so far exactly proving the point of the study.
I have said before, people’s experienes with everyday crime (shoplifting, phone snatching, intimidation) and antisocial behaviour that are not reported as crime do not line up with statistical claims.
Here’s the thing, people don’t see statistics, they see their lives experiences. Seeing a smackhead or roadmap pulled of the tube by police will do more for someone’s experience of safety than a billion pounds of media campaigns about “statistics”.
The truth is that crime was thought to be too high in the ’80s too,
That’s because crime was too high.
I understand that crime now is not as high as crime as in the 1980s. That doesn’t mean it’s not too high.
I can go to South Korea and it seems like crime is not high. Koreans think crime is not high too. That’s because crime is not high in South Korea.
> Crime is falling, but the public think it’s rising. Of five crime types tested, only
shoplifting has actually risen since 2010 (up around 70%) – and the public gets that
one right (84% say it increased). On every other measure, perception and reality
point in opposite directions
I wasn’t comparing to 2010. I wasn’t claiming that crime has risen since 2010.
> The public wrongly think police numbers have been cut. Police officer numbers rose
around 20% between 2018 and 2025, but two-thirds (63%) think they fell, and only 18%
correctly say they rose at all.
Wait, why are you now comparing to 2018? Is it a different story comparing to 2010?
This is what you get with the normalization of othering people who aren’t white. It’s that othering that prevents them from better communication in the work place, it’s that splintered communication that makes them less likely to be employed in better roles
It’s that lack of employment that encourages redlining which leads to contempt from all sides
Everyone’s competing to get to the top and arrogance is usually what messing things up no matter who you are. Well since white people are the majority it’s a lot easier for white people to have any personality they want really, and I think media has normalized that personality freedom for them
If you head over to /uknews, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the only thing that ever occurs in the UK is migrant violent crime. It is a concerted, coordinated media effort to build this narrative.
Fun counters you can deploy:
Honestly yeah, the amount of crime in this country, and grannies are getting arrested for saying “free Palestine”
The news focuses on violent crime, but look at all this white collar crime! Reform taking bribes to destroy our country but the police can’t be bothered to investigate!
And a personal favourite:
We need a complete and total shutdown on young adult males, until we can find out what the hell is going on!
30 comments
Most crime in England and Wales is falling – but the public think it’s rising. In fact, they are wrong about crime on nearly every measure: from how many people fall victim, to the ethnicity and nationality of offenders, and whether police numbers have increased or decreased, according to a major new study from the Policy Institute at King’s College London.
Based on two surveys of 1,797 and 2,164 UK adults, carried out with YouGov between 23 and 27 March 2026, Wrongful convictions? Misperceptions about crime among the UK public finds that while mistaken beliefs about crime are not confined to one political party, Reform UK supporters stand out as consistently most wrong – particularly on the ethnicity of those convicted of serious offences and the share of prisoners and offenders who are foreign nationals.
The study – part of a new research series called Mistaken Britain – also shows why these incorrect beliefs matter, with those who hold misperceptions about crime more likely to feel there is “two-tier justice” in the UK, more sceptical of the government’s ability to deal with crime, and more supportive of harsher, more punitive crime policies.
What the public get most wrong about crime
The public overestimate how many people are victims of crime. Asked what share of the population in England and Wales personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025, the public’s median guess is 27% – almost three times the reality of 9.7%.
Crime is falling, but the public think it’s rising. Of five crime types tested, only shoplifting has actually risen since 2010 (up around 70%) – and the public gets that one right (84% say it increased). On every other measure, perception and reality point in opposite directions: 83% think mobile phone theft has risen when it has fallen by around 70%; majorities think domestic burglary (56%) and vehicle theft (62%) have risen when both have fallen by around 50%; and 37% think murder has risen when it is down around 20%.
The public wrongly assume most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority. In fact, 64% are white – but the public’s median guess is just 45%. Conversely, they overestimate the ethnic-minority share, putting it at 55% when the reality is 35%.
Foreign nationals are assumed to be roughly double their true share of offenders. The public’s median guess is that foreign nationals make up 25% of the prison population (reality: 12%) and 30% of those cautioned for or convicted of sexual offences (reality: 15%) – around double the true proportion in both cases.
The public wrongly think police numbers have been cut. Police officer numbers rose around 20% between 2018 and 2025, but two-thirds (63%) think they fell, and only 18% correctly say they rose at all.
People think others are more fearful than they actually are. The public guess 60% of the population do not feel safe walking alone in their area after dark – significantly higher than the reality of 39%.
Recency shapes the public’s perception of terrorism deaths. The 2000s and 2010s had the fewest terrorist deaths of any decade in the last 50 years – yet the public rank them second and third most deadly respectively. 27% correctly identify the 1970s as the deadliest – the top single option selected – but 55% wrongly pick a more recent decade.
>British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-public-wrong-about-nearly-everything-survey-shows-8697821.html
Always has been.
Doesn’t help that the media don’t understand crime statistics and keep reporting on police recorded data (which most of the time isn’t a reliable indicator of actual crime rates and actual trends) rather than crime survey data (which shows a steady, long term decrease in crime rates since the 1990s).
‘The public wrongly assume most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority. In fact, 64% are white’
This isn’t going to help.
People’s perception is about how safe they feel, and how visible policing is. Not %s.
The thing with crime statistics is they are dependent on people actually reporting them. Many people “give up” on the minor things now, because nothing will get done, if the police even turn up, which erodes their opinion in how safe society is.
You may say the serious offences are down in numbers and %s, but that thankfully is not the interaction most people have with crime and police, thus doesn’t really shape opinion as much as the minor things- exactly like your shoplifting example.
Right wing media is desgined to keep us scared and afraid of one another so their benefactors can push their lackeys into government
The can’t be wrong with a subjective opinion.
The correct headline would be ‘police mis-record crime rates’.
Shoplifting has risen and you witness it more IRL
Sex crime has risen.
The public are right that ethnic minorities are massively overrepresented as offenders relative to their share of population.
The government refuses to publish crime stats by nationality. But it’s likely some nations are massively overrepresented and others underrepresented.
So the public are forgetting to mentally account for low crime amount Japanese women etc but completely correct that illegal immigrant men commit more
Interesting read, I’m starting to feel like people are so bought into the narrative that everything is getting worse that they just reject anything contrary to that.
I thought most people understood that proportionally certain ethnic groups commit a disproportionate amount of crime?
The media – in all its modern forms – are squarely to blame for this.
Controversy, anger and dissatisfaction generate waaaaaay more clicks & cash than the opposite.
Well ye of course… when they are told daily, headline after headline, narratives to manufacture consent and get votes for further authoritarian politics
# “Reform UK supporters stand out as most mistaken” yeah, no shit.
I saw 2 non white deliveroo guys cycling up hill in Glasgow without turning their pedals. This kind of low level flagrant disregard for the law is what people notice and then they remember the standout feature, they were not white.
For balance, the majority of people I have seen shoplifting in Glasgow have been wee white neds and they go unpunished as well.
Can’t the stats be skewed though? If crime drops significantly in major cities like London the overall rate may look like its gone down, despite the fact local crime has risen in smaller towns and cities.
That would lead to more of a feeling population wide that crime is going up?
Public perceptions of crime at odds with reported crime. It’s the sheer amount of unreported crime that is the problem. The police do fuck all so most people don’t report it.
Maybe the media should stop blasting unrealistic crime stats then, disproportionately covering certain demographs over others
Ignoring the very worst crimes here, but let’s look at more minor ones. How many people have seen someone steal from a supermarket and get away with it? When I’ve seen it, it wouldn’t have been be recorded in the police data because the police were never aware it even happened.
As for recording of ethnicity in crimes, it’s apparently recorded in 82% of cases. Anyone who watches or reads the news knows that if it’s a white male, they tell you it’s a white male. If it’s not, it’s usually a ‘British citizen’. It’s no wonder people jump to their own conclusion where the information isn’t transparent and consistent.
“Public believes the algorithm slop paid for by Russian disinformation campaigns over reality”
Why would I base my opinions on something silly like data when I can just believe whatever an angry man with a microphone or a rando on Facebook tells me?
According to the gov.uk figures for London, 53% of knife crimes are carried out by the 13% of the London population that is of black heritage. This 13% includes children and women, so the per capita offending rate for young males in this group is grossly disproportionate. No one is allowed to report this. I presume uncomfortable figure this will be removed asap.
I haven’t read the study but from the headline I’m going to guess it doesn’t mention per capita statistics? 🤷🏻♂️
No shit, how many times do you see news articles actually reporting on crime statistics compared to individual cases (anecdotes) which really are just local news at most, but make national news because they make for good clickbait/ragebait?
The crime rate might be down but reporting on individual cases is louder, more accessible, and more prevalent than ever. No matter how low the crime rate really drops, someone on steady diet of tabloid crime-related news stories (and poor critical and statistical thinking) will think it’s pernamently going up…
What happens to statistics when the police stop investigating crimes? Are the bike thefts still counted?
Is this not reported crime though? Does anyone bother to report anything non serious anymore? I see lawbreaking everyday but don’t bother to report it, shoplifting, kids on motorbikes, package thieves.
This thread so far exactly proving the point of the study.
I have said before, people’s experienes with everyday crime (shoplifting, phone snatching, intimidation) and antisocial behaviour that are not reported as crime do not line up with statistical claims.
Here’s the thing, people don’t see statistics, they see their lives experiences. Seeing a smackhead or roadmap pulled of the tube by police will do more for someone’s experience of safety than a billion pounds of media campaigns about “statistics”.
The truth is that crime was thought to be too high in the ’80s too,
That’s because crime was too high.
I understand that crime now is not as high as crime as in the 1980s. That doesn’t mean it’s not too high.
I can go to South Korea and it seems like crime is not high. Koreans think crime is not high too. That’s because crime is not high in South Korea.
> Crime is falling, but the public think it’s rising. Of five crime types tested, only
shoplifting has actually risen since 2010 (up around 70%) – and the public gets that
one right (84% say it increased). On every other measure, perception and reality
point in opposite directions
I wasn’t comparing to 2010. I wasn’t claiming that crime has risen since 2010.
Interesting that crime is up [compared to 2014](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/united-kingdom/crime-rate-statistics). What happened?
> The public wrongly think police numbers have been cut. Police officer numbers rose
around 20% between 2018 and 2025, but two-thirds (63%) think they fell, and only 18%
correctly say they rose at all.
Wait, why are you now comparing to 2018? Is it a different story comparing to 2010?
This is what you get with the normalization of othering people who aren’t white. It’s that othering that prevents them from better communication in the work place, it’s that splintered communication that makes them less likely to be employed in better roles
It’s that lack of employment that encourages redlining which leads to contempt from all sides
Everyone’s competing to get to the top and arrogance is usually what messing things up no matter who you are. Well since white people are the majority it’s a lot easier for white people to have any personality they want really, and I think media has normalized that personality freedom for them
If you head over to /uknews, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the only thing that ever occurs in the UK is migrant violent crime. It is a concerted, coordinated media effort to build this narrative.
Fun counters you can deploy:
Honestly yeah, the amount of crime in this country, and grannies are getting arrested for saying “free Palestine”
The news focuses on violent crime, but look at all this white collar crime! Reform taking bribes to destroy our country but the police can’t be bothered to investigate!
And a personal favourite:
We need a complete and total shutdown on young adult males, until we can find out what the hell is going on!