{"id":10450,"date":"2026-01-12T12:29:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T12:29:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/forums\/10450\/"},"modified":"2026-01-12T12:29:59","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T12:29:59","slug":"iranas-turi-degti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/forums\/10450\/","title":{"rendered":"Iranas turi degti"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Daugelis stebi \u012fvykius Irane per emocin\u0119 prizm\u0119 – laisv\u0117, teis\u0117s, kova prie\u0161 priespaud\u0105. Tai yra super, palaikyti laisv\u0119 visada yra teisinga. Bet pabandykim pa\u017ei\u016br\u0117ti giliau, \u012f pa\u010di\u0105 geopolitin\u0119 mechanik\u0105, ir pamatysit, kad Irano re\u017eimo klib\u0117jimas mums yra ne \u0161iaip gera naujiena, o tiesioginis Lietuvos saugumo garantas.<\/p>\n

Esm\u0117 ta, Iranas yra Rusijos gyvyb\u0117s palaikymo sistemos backendas, o ne tik \u0161iaip draugelis ar prekybos partneris. Putinas pats nesuk\u016br\u0117 sankcij\u0173 ap\u0117jimo modelio, jis tiesiog prisijung\u0117 prie jau veikian\u010dio Irano tinklo. Visa Rusijos juodoji buhalterija, \u0161e\u0161\u0117linis laivynas ir mikroschem\u0173 kontrabanda va\u017eiuoja per Teherano seniai atidirbtus kanalus. Jei ajatolos krenta arba \u0161alis panyra \u012f chaos\u0105, Rusija logistika stringa. Jiems tenka i\u0161radin\u0117ti dvirat\u012f, kol ekonomika dega, o tai mums yra kriti\u0161kai naudinga.<\/p>\n

Pagalvokit apie logistik\u0105. Kaspijos j\u016bra \u0161iuo metu yra vienintel\u0117 saugi arterija ginkl\u0173 tiekimui, kurios nemato NATO radarai ir nepasiekia ukrainie\u010di\u0173 dronai. Tai aklas ta\u0161kas, per kur\u012f \u012f \u0161iaur\u0119 plaukia Shared'ai ir sviediniai. Bet jei Teherane prasideda GTA lygio suirut\u0117, uostai stoja. Revoliucin\u0117 gvardija nebegalvoja, kaip pakrauti dronus \u012f laivus ruskiams, jie galvoja, kaip i\u0161saugoti vald\u017ei\u0105 ar tiesiog nebaigti gyvenimo ant stulpo. Kai pas tave namie gaisras, tu nesiunti gesintuv\u0173 kaimynui. Be Irano pagalbos Rusijos karin\u0117 pramon\u0117 d\u016bsta fizi\u0161kai, nes visi kiti keliai yra u\u017eminuoti sankcijomis.<\/p>\n

Ir galiausiai, naftos matematika. Jei teokratinis re\u017eimas gri\u016bva ir ateina bet kas pragmati\u0161ko, kas nori vakarieti\u0161k\u0173 pinig\u0173, sankcijos krenta. Irano nafta u\u017elieja rink\u0105, pasi\u016bla vir\u0161ija paklaus\u0105, kaina krenta. Rusijos biud\u017eetas laikosi i\u0161skirtinai ant brangios naftos. Pigus kuras Putin\u0105 pribaigt\u0173 grei\u010diau nei bet kokie HIMARS sm\u016bgiai. Tad \u017ei\u016br\u0117dami \u012f vaizdus i\u0161 Irano, matykit ne tik tolim\u0105 konflikt\u0105, bet ir tiesiogin\u0119 naud\u0105 mums. Kiekvienas ten kil\u0119s neramumas yra investicija \u012f m\u016bs\u0173 ramyb\u0119, nes kuo didesnis bardakas pas juos, tuo ma\u017eiau resurs\u0173 lieka karui prie\u0161 mus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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