{"id":514930,"date":"2025-11-06T02:59:25","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T02:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/514930\/"},"modified":"2025-11-06T02:59:25","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T02:59:25","slug":"scenarios-lotan-a-lepreuve-de-la-menace-russe-lhypothese-balte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/514930\/","title":{"rendered":"[Sc\u00e9narios] L\u2019OTAN \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve de la menace russe : l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se balte"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les multiples incursions de drones et violations de l\u2019espace a\u00e9rien de plusieurs pays europ\u00e9ens par la Russie au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025, associ\u00e9es \u00e0 des cyber-attaques, laissent craindre <strong>un accroissement de la menace russe \u00e0 l\u2019encontre des nations europ\u00e9ennes dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir<\/strong>, quelle que soit l\u2019issue de la guerre en Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Cette menace de la Russie se comprend dans un double contexte\u00a0: <strong>un risque d\u2019intensification de la pression militaire de la part de la Russie<\/strong> (\u00e9conomie de guerre, mont\u00e9e en puissance des arm\u00e9es) associ\u00e9e \u00e0 <strong>une tendance au d\u00e9sengagement des \u00c9tats-Unis vis-\u00e0-vis de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Dans cette optique, nous faisons l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se que la Russie cherchera dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir \u00e0 tester la solidit\u00e9 de l\u2019article 5 de l\u2019OTAN et de l\u2019architecture de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 euro-atlantique, au moyen d\u2019une <strong>agression \u00e0 l\u2019encontre des pays baltes &#8211; membres \u00e0 la fois de l\u2019OTAN et de l\u2019UE<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Nous retenons un sc\u00e9nario d\u2019escalade progressive, dans lequel <strong>la Russie engagerait d\u2019abord des actions hybrides avant de recourir \u00e0 des moyens conventionnels<\/strong>. \u00c0 ce stade de la crise, nous identifions <strong>trois trajectoires possibles de r\u00e9ponse<\/strong> de l\u2019OTAN et de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne, selon que l\u2019article 5 serait activ\u00e9 ou non.<\/p>\n<p>Cette note repose sur un large corpus d\u2019entretiens men\u00e9s aupr\u00e8s de responsables politiques, administratifs et militaires des pays baltes ainsi que de l\u2019est et de l\u2019ouest europ\u00e9en. Elle propose des pistes de r\u00e9flexion pour orienter les choix europ\u00e9ens en mati\u00e8re de d\u00e9fense et de s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Les multiples incursions de drones et violations de l\u2019espace a\u00e9rien de plusieurs pays europ\u00e9ens par la Russie au&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":514931,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1591],"tags":[11,1887,12,1885,1886,132],"class_list":{"0":"post-514930","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-russie","8":"tag-actualites","9":"tag-federation-de-russie","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-russia","12":"tag-russian-federation","13":"tag-russie"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@fr\/115500519533243371","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=514930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514930\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/514931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=514930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=514930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=514930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}