Gavin Lee is pleased to welcome Spencer P. Boyer, Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy. As war rages in the Middle East, amid a highly volatile geopolitical landscape, Boyer centers on three interlocking dynamics: the dangers of escalation under conditions of uncertainty, the enduring complexity of hostage diplomacy, and the strategic consequences for alliances such as NATO.
The downing of a US fighter jet over Iran carries the potential to reshape the conflict’s scope entirely. The risk is not only military, but political: how leadership interprets events, communicates success, and chooses to respond. At the same time, we must remain grounded in historical precedent: hostage situations have repeatedly altered the calculus of conflict. All the while, the strain on transatlantic relations, including NATO, and the broader geopolitical advantage accruing to actors like Russia, all form part of the fragile equilibrium of an international system under pressure.
Produced by Gavin Lee, Théophile Vareille, Guillaume Gougeon and Laura Burloux