Find winning stocks in any market cycle. Join 7 million investors using Simply Wall St’s investing ideas for FREE.
Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) drew fresh attention after Airbus Netherlands agreed with SES S.A. and the municipality of Noordwijk on a ground lease for an optical quantum communications station at NL Space Campus.
See our latest analysis for Airbus.
At a share price of €194.32, Airbus has seen short term share price weakness, with the 1 day and 7 day returns slightly negative. A 30 day share price return of 3.9% and a 90 day gain of 8.27% sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.28% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 89.96%. This points to momentum that has been stronger over the longer term than in recent months as investors weigh news such as the quantum communications project, potential widebody aircraft orders and new AI focused partnerships.
If you are interested in how other companies are positioned around quantum and advanced communications themes, it may be worth scanning the market using a dedicated list of 26 quantum computing stocks
Bulls point to Airbus revenue and profit growth, along with quantum and AI projects, while bears focus on the recent share price dip and execution risks. Which side does the current valuation actually support?
Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued
The most followed narrative on Airbus currently points to a fair value of about €231 per share, compared with the last close at €194.32. This frames the recent weakness in a very different light.
Airbus is not a hyper-growth story. It is a backlog-driven, duopoly industrial platform with improving governance and operational discipline.
But structurally:
Entry barriers are extreme
Switching costs are massive
Demand visibility is high
Want to understand why this narrative still sees upside at €231 per share? The entire case rests on a specific mix of revenue growth, margin lift and where the future profit multiple settles. Curious which of those levers does the heavy lifting in the valuation model, and how much headroom it assumes for Airbus compared with today?
Result: Fair Value of €231 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, Airbus still faces supply chain constraints and potential defense program setbacks that could delay cash flows and challenge the narrative that the stock is currently 16% undervalued.
Find out about the key risks to this Airbus narrative.
Next Steps
Given the mixed sentiment around Airbus, do you want to rely on others or test the thesis yourself by reviewing the underlying data and expectations? A good place to start is by seeing why some investors are focused on its potential rewards through the 3 key rewards
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Airbus?
If you only stop at Airbus, you might miss other opportunities that fit your style, whether you care more about growth potential, resilience or income.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AIR.PA.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com