wo times its book value (a bank’s net assets on paper), which would put 15% at roughly $2 billion, or around 55% above the current market price.
Vietnam’s rules add another twist: foreign ownership is capped at 30% for most banks, and Techcombank is already around 20.5% foreign-owned. That means a new buyer may need to structure a deal around a secondary block, potentially purchasing shares from existing foreign holders rather than issuing lots of new stock.
Why should I care?
For markets: Techcombank’s 30% foreign cap can make 2 times book look realistic.
When regulation limits who can own a stock, “available to foreigners” shares can become scarce. With only about 9.5% of headroom left before Techcombank hits the 30% cap, any compliant 15% deal likely requires someone to sell a sizable block. Scarcity tends to shift negotiations away from the day-to-day share price and toward what a strategic buyer is willing to pay for access.
If a deal clears near two times book, it could act like an M&A-style reference point for Techcombank’s valuation, and a benchmark for other Vietnam bank stake talks. Reuters notes the market will likely compare it with prior strategic deals, such as SMBC, a Japanese megabank, buying 15% of VPBank in 2023.