on later years when more planes should be delivered. The bank also points to Airbus’ 2029 target of 12-13 billion euros of adjusted operating profit (adjusted EBIT, or earnings before interest and taxes), which implies a big step up from the company’s 2026 goal and relies heavily on higher production rates.
There’s an extra twist: aircraft assembly carries lots of fixed costs (factories, tooling, engineering teams). When production runs smoothly, each additional delivery can add profit faster than sales grow, because those fixed costs get spread across more aircraft.
Why should I care?
For markets: Airbus’ 242-euro target depends on deliveries staying on track.
Metzler’s call is less about new orders and more about execution. If parts shortages keep fading, Airbus can convert more of its backlog into deliveries, which is when investors see revenue, cash, and that “fixed-costs-spread-thinner” profit effect.
That also makes the stock more sensitive to production hiccups than it might look at first glance. If deliveries fall a bit short, the hit to profit can be larger than the hit to revenue, because the costs don’t fall as quickly. And since the 242-euro target leans on a credible path to 12-13 billion euros of adjusted operating profit by 2029, even small delivery misses can widen the gap between today’s valuation and the earnings power Metzler is pricing in.