Airbus presented its Global Market Forecast 2026-2045 at the ALTA AGM & Airline Leaders Forum 2026, being held in Mexico City, and projected that Latin America’s commercial passenger fleet will grow from 1,550 to 2,770 aircraft by 2045.
To get there, airlines in the region will need 2,720 new aircraft: 2,520 narrowbodies and 200 widebodies, of which 1,220 will serve to grow fleets and 1,500 to replace aircraft from previous generations. The forecast is higher than last year’s, when the manufacturer estimated some 2,440 deliveries for the region.
A difficult 2026, but the long-term forecast holds firm
Yannick Fournier Cairó, Airbus market analyst, started with the short term. He recalled that the industry has overcome several crises over the past three decades and that in 2024 global traffic was already above 2019 levels, with Latin America among the regions where international traffic grew the most.
This year is a different story: because of the conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel prices, IATA’s forecast was cut from 5% at the start of the year to 2% by mid-year, and between January and August global traffic grew just 0.4% versus 2025. He did not rule out the year ending flat or even with a slight decline.
For the 20-year forecast, the methodology combines Airbus’ macroeconomic provider projections with the airlines’ order backlogs. Global projections point to annual passenger traffic growth of 3.9%, GDP growth of 2.6% and population growth of just 0.4%, while the middle class will add more than 1 billion people and reach 60% of the world’s population: for the manufacturer, that is the main driver of travel.
In percentage terms, growth is lower than in the past two decades, but in absolute terms the increase in traffic will be more than double. By 2045, according to Airbus, India will be where China is today, and China where Europe is today.
For the industry as a whole, the estimate exceeds 42,000 new deliveries over 20 years, with narrowbodies accounting for 80% of deliveries —40% of that demand is already in the order books— and replacement rising from 44% to 47% because the in-service fleet is older today than in previous years. By region, Asia-Pacific, adding China and India, accounts for almost half of demand; the Middle East leads in widebodies and Latin America in the share of narrowbodies.
Latin America: urbanization, middle class and domestic markets
According to Airbus, the region has favorable conditions: GDP will grow above the global average, trade will advance close to 3% a year against 2.7% globally, urbanization stands at around 90% —the second highest in the world after North America— and the middle class will add more than 100 million people to around 500 million, almost 70% of the regional population. The manufacturer also highlights that the population is spread across a growing number of urban centers, which will open new routes that latest-generation aircraft can fly and expand the continent’s air network.
A trait of the region the analyst pointed out: intra-regional traffic is only the fourth-largest flow by capacity, and the two largest are international, to North America and Europe. Airbus estimates that the region’s origin-and-destination traffic will grow 3.7% a year over the next two decades, with domestic traffic advancing 4% a year —the fastest-growing— and intra-regional traffic 3.3%. Among international flows, the fastest growing are those to China, Africa and the Middle East; his example was China Eastern’s Buenos Aires–Shanghai route, launched in late 2025.
Travel propensity (trips per capita per year) will also grow strongly: in Chile, Mexico and Brazil it would double or more, with Colombia and Argentina not far behind. Fleet renewal is accelerating: today 44% of the aircraft in service in the region are latest generation and Airbus expects that share to reach 94% by 2035. Latin America is already the world’s second region with the highest proportion of new-generation aircraft, after India; with expensive fuel, that is a cost advantage on top of lower CO2 emissions.
Mexico: from bus to plane
For Mexico, Airbus expects domestic traffic to grow 4.6% a year, above the regional average, as more and more passengers switch from bus to plane. The domestic market would exceed 120 million trips by the end of the period, Mexico’s traffic with the rest of the region would grow 3% a year and China appears among the fastest-expanding international destinations. The Mexico–United States route is the largest international flow in the entire region, with almost 20% of the international trips generated in Latin America.
Airbus’ presence in the region
Arturo Barreira, Airbus president for Latin America and the Caribbean, reviewed the company’s footprint: products and services in 32 countries in the region, with 17 sites, a physical presence in Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Argentina and about 1,700 employees, almost half of them in Mexico, where some 15,000 indirect jobs are also generated.
In commercial aviation, Airbus has sold more than 1,400 aircraft in Latin America and the Caribbean to 21 airlines. It has more than 900 in operation, 52% of the fleet of more than 100 seats, and about 450 pending delivery, with a share exceeding 65% of the region’s order backlog. In Mexico there are 280 Airbus aircraft in operation, 56% of the fleet: Volaris and Viva together account for more than 250 aircraft of the A320 family and Airbus holds 92% of the country’s pending orders.
In helicopters, Airbus has some 1,400 units in the region, around 150 of them in Mexico. Many belong to small operators, so the manufacturer keeps maintenance centers in Chile, Brazil and Mexico City, in addition to an assembly line in Minas Gerais, Brazil. In defense, it has more than 110 military transport aircraft in the region, 21 of them with the Mexican Armed Forces, and in Mexico it also operates satellite reception stations and a secure communications network in 31 states.
The Querétaro plant, opened in 2010, is “the crown jewel” for the executive. It builds doors for the A320 family and helicopter subassemblies that are shipped to assembly lines in Europe. Its capacity will double towards 2030 —the expansion was inaugurated a few months ago with the state governor— and it is key for Airbus to reach production of 75 A320 aircraft per month between late 2027 and early 2028.
Viva-Volaris, Venezuela, the A321XLR and the A220
Viva-Volaris merger. “Whatever is good for our customers will be good for us,” Arturo Barreira summarized. The airlines believe the merger, still pending a regulator’s decision, will give them greater financial stability, and for Airbus a stronger group with a large share in a key market will be positive in the long term: between them they have more than a hundred aircraft pending delivery.
Venezuela. Airbus sees great potential in the country’s opening and is already talking with Venezuelan airlines, according to Barreira. Because of its location, Venezuela could be a natural hub for north-south connections, and several airlines want to renew their fleets, very old today, after Venezuelan traffic shrank to a fifth over 30 years. “I am convinced that Venezuela’s future is very positive,” he stated.
This year’s forecast, however, does not reflect that change: the GDP used in the model comes from external providers and, when the forecast was prepared, the situation in the country was highly volatile. Fournier anticipated that next year’s edition will be “completely different” and much more optimistic for Venezuela.
A321XLR. With the model’s arrival at SKY and JetSMART, Barreira described it as an aircraft “for specific needs,” not for everyone. The potential he sees is on routes such as the Southern Cone to the Caribbean and Florida, Peru to the north of the continent, northeast Brazil to Europe and Venezuela to Spain because of the Venezuelan diaspora. The XLR complements widebodies, it does not replace them: for A320 family operators it is a way to open routes they could not fly before.
Asked about passenger complaints over the number and location of lavatories in some long-range configurations, Barreira preferred not to comment on each airline’s decisions and attributed them to “youthful mistakes.” He recalled that he flew Madrid–Washington on an XLR and that he found the experience “very good.”
A220. The program is a success and still has potential in the region, according to the Airbus president for Latin America and the Caribbean: it could serve smaller markets than those of the A320 family and replace aircraft such as the A319 and older-generation 737s.
He attributed its absence in South America to the consolidation of the sector: the region went from almost 100 airlines to a little more than 30 and five or six groups control three quarters of the traffic, a process in which the A320 became the dominant aircraft. “I am not worried,” he stated.
In the Caribbean, where tourism is the main growth driver, the A220 would allow the islands to connect with Canada, the US West Coast and South America. Airbus also owns 50% of ATR, together with Leonardo, whose turboprops have a strong regional presence.
Argentina. Why does the country not reach one trip per capita per year? The analyst’s answer pointed to the way the indicator is calculated: according to its providers, Argentina will be the country in the region whose population will grow the most, and that dilutes the metric even as trips increase. On the local fleet, Barreira mentioned Aerolíneas Argentinas’ commitment, announced in Farnborough, to add six A330neo to renew its long-haul fleet, today made up of A330ceo, and cited JetSMART, which holds around 30% of the Argentine market and a backlog of about 70 Airbus aircraft.
Supply chain, cargo and the SAF challenge
Supply chain. The problems have affected almost every industry since the pandemic, and aviation is no exception. Airbus now has 10 A320 family assembly lines —4 in Germany, 2 in France, 2 in Tianjin and 2 in Mobile, Alabama— against 7 or 8 before COVID, and staff at its key suppliers’ plants, with more than 10,000 suppliers worldwide. Suppliers cannot be changed overnight, given certification and quality requirements.
Cargo. The market performed very well in recent years: MasAir was the first A330P2F operator in the Americas and now has five, and Azul already operates the A321P2F in Brazil. The limit to growth is the lack of passenger aircraft available for conversion, because of high demand in that segment.
The A350F made its first flight a few weeks ago in Toulouse and spent about four hours in the air. It has accumulated more than 100 orders and the first delivery is scheduled for the second half of 2027; among its markets are transpacific flows such as Mexico–Asia.
Infrastructure. The region’s main airports, such as Bogotá and Mexico City, have no limitations to receive widebody aircraft, although he called for continued investment in airports and air traffic control. “Air transport is not elitist,” he said, citing as an example that Bogotá–Medellín takes hours by road and about 30 minutes by air.
New technologies and SAF. Airbus continues to invest in research and development of the technologies a future aircraft will need, and expects to be able to launch it in five or six years. On sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Brazil is the most advanced country in the region: it already has its fuel law and consumption mandates take effect next year. Decarbonization is “the most important challenge” for the region in the coming years.