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<\/p>\n(Kitco News) – The silver market continues to garner significant investor attention as prices have surged in the final days of 2025.<\/p>\n
However, this unprecedented run has also created significant volatility, with prices falling 9% on Monday after hitting an all-time high of $84 an ounce. Despite the selling pressure, the grey metal has managed to hold initial support above $72 an ounce and is on track to end the year up 160%.<\/p>\n
After Monday\u2019s selloff, many investors are now asking whether the silver market is in a bubble that has already popped. Commodity analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale said that while some modelling suggests silver\u2019s parabolic run has turned into a bubble, investors shouldn\u2019t ignore the fundamental factors that continue to support higher prices.<\/p>\n
The analysts said that, viewed on a standard linear scale, silver prices look expensive, but viewing the price action through a logarithmic scale reveals a compounding trend that has been building for the last 25 years.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen we saw a near-vertical move above $80\/oz last week, it naturally looked dramatic, perhaps emotionally driven, and, in some people\u2019s view, resembling a bubble. However, the moment you switch to a time series plot on a logarithmic scale (lower RHS), the narrative changes, as the run-up looks much more stable and not unprecedented,\u201d the analysts said. \u201cThe logarithmic scale is the correct baseline because it clearly reveals the underlying exponential trend.\u201d<\/p>\n
Although silver\u2019s rally could be defined as a bubble according to some models, the French bank argues that the parameters are flawed when applied to the precious metal because silver is a smaller, more volatile market. They explained that the silver market can generate bubble-like signals because illiquidity amplifies herding, feedback loops, and price instability.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe therefore prefer to interpret the \u2018bubble\u2019 regime as potential instability indicators, as we would always expect healthy corrections to extreme price moves,\u201d the analysts said.<\/p>\n
The analysts added that they do not expect their bubble models to forecast a change in the momentum or general trend of silver prices, given the current fundamental backdrop. They noted that silver demand remains well supported amid the global de-dollarisation trend and elevated uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, SocGen said it expects the silver market to experience further liquidity issues, particularly as China restricts its exports starting Jan. 1.<\/p>\n
\u201cChina supplies between 60\u201370% of refined silver globally, so this crackdown is expected to tighten refined supply sharply\u2014potentially reducing China\u2019s silver exports by up to 30%. Given persistent global deficits (around 200\u2013230 million ounces, with demand topping 1.24 billion ounces in 2025), the restriction could deepen shortages,\u201d the analysts said.<\/p>\n
At the same time, SocGen also sees some relief in Western markets, as the analysts do not expect the U.S. government to implement tariffs on silver imports, even with silver\u2019s new designation as a critical metal.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe hear through industry sources that we will receive clarity mid-January on the results of the critical Section 232 analysis,\u201d the analysts said. \u201cIt\u2019s our opinion that it\u2019s hard to imagine the U.S. government would impose tariffs on silver, particularly 1,000-ounce bullion bars. If that were to happen, OTC tightness would intensify dramatically, as outbound shipments from the U.S. would effectively halt. The market is experiencing geographical shortages of 1,000-ounce bars, including in China, London, and India, leading to physical premiums across the key markets.\u201d<\/p>\n
Disclaimer:\u00a0The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and\/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Kitco News) – The silver market continues to garner significant investor attention as prices have surged in the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29575,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12932],"tags":[1692,1680,1684,1686,1679,1689,1682,1681,1683,1690,1670,1691,1277,1669,1693,1676,1694,1678,1673,1674,1672,1675,346,1677,1688,1695,1671,12955,1687,1685],"class_list":["post-29574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-societe-generale","tag-bank-forecasts","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-central-banks","tag-charts","tag-crypto-news","tag-currency","tag-economic-reports","tag-ethereum-news","tag-forecasts","tag-global-economy","tag-gold","tag-international-policy","tag-interviews","tag-kitco-news","tag-market-nugget","tag-metals","tag-mining-minutes","tag-mining-news","tag-palladium","tag-pgm","tag-platinum","tag-platinum-group-metals","tag-politics","tag-precious-metals","tag-rare-earth-metals","tag-roundups","tag-silver","tag-societe-generale","tag-tech-metals","tag-us-dollar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29574\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}