{"id":31668,"date":"2026-06-06T03:08:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T03:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/31668\/"},"modified":"2026-06-06T03:08:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T03:08:09","slug":"hermes-hierarchical-modelling-for-exoplanet-science","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/31668\/","title":{"rendered":"HERMES: HiERarchical Modelling for Exoplanet Science"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>                                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/HERMES-HiERarchical.png\" alt=\"HERMES: HiERarchical Modelling for Exoplanet Science\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\n                                                                                                            The heatmap shows the practical recovery threshold for the stellar\u2013planetary metallicity correlation: small and moderate surveys lose sensitivity once intrinsic scatter becomes large, whereas Ariel-scale samples maintain high recovery fractions across the tested scatter range. \u2014 astro-ph.EP                                                                                                    <\/p>\n<p>ESA\u2019s Ariel Space Mission will characterise the atmospheres of approximately 1000 exoplanets to quantify population-level trends.<\/p>\n<p>We present HERMES (HiERarchical Modelling for Exoplanet Science), a multidimensional Bayesian framework that probes population-level correlations across multiple axes of diversity. The specific use case we present is the multidimensional relation between stellar metallicity, planetary mass, and atmospheric metallicity.<\/p>\n<p>Starting from the Ariel Mission Candidate Sample (Edwards &amp; Tinetti 2022), we select confirmed planets with available masses and stellar metallicity, inject plausible multidimensional trends and demonstrate successful parameter recovery. Simulated surveys are generated with a variety of leverage and sample size, in the presence of intrinsic astrophysical scatter and measurement noise.<\/p>\n<p>By fitting independent Bayesian models to each survey, we confirm that survey leverage remains a reliable predictor of trend precision even in multiple dimensions and in the presence of intrinsic astrophysical scatter. For an Ariel Tier 2 transit survey of at least 400 planets, HERMES robustly recovers the correlation between stellar and planetary metallicity despite intrinsic scatter in planetary abundances as large as 1.2 dex.<\/p>\n<p>These results establish HERMES as a practical tool for survey design and science yield forecasting in preparation for Ariel and other surveys probing population-level trends.<\/p>\n<p>Wasi M. F. Naqvi, Nicolas B. Cowan<\/p>\n<p>Comments: 10 pages, 6 pages. Submitted to RAS Techniques and Instruments<br \/>Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM)<br \/>Cite as: arXiv:2606.02696 [astro-ph.EP] (or arXiv:2606.02696v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2606.02696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2606.02696<\/a><br \/>Focus to learn more<br \/>Submission history<br \/>From: Wasi M.F. Naqvi<br \/>[v1] Mon, 1 Jun 2026 18:00:00 UTC (345 KB)<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2606.02696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2606.02696<\/a><br \/>Astrobiology,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The heatmap shows the practical recovery threshold for the stellar\u2013planetary metallicity correlation: small and moderate surveys lose sensitivity&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31669,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12919],"tags":[22750,22751,22752,22753,4953,22754,22755],"class_list":["post-31668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hermes","tag-ariel-mission","tag-astro-ph-ep","tag-atmosphere","tag-exoplanet","tag-hermes","tag-metallicity","tag-stellar-cartography"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31668\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}