France retains its sovereign debt rating of A+, with a stable outlook. Fitch Ratings delivered its decision on Friday, August 28, staving off for now the threat of a downgrade, even as fiscal indicators continue to deteriorate.<\/p>\n
The agency justified the decision by citing the “resilience” of the French economy \u2014 large, prosperous, with a solid banking sector and a diversified investor base \u2014 while acknowledging that “short-term growth will remain modest.” That assessment stands in stark contrast to the severity of its fiscal projections.<\/p>\n
For while the rating itself is unchanged, the figures put forward by Fitch are markedly more pessimistic than at its last review in March. The agency now projects a public deficit of 5.2% of GDP in 2026, up from 4.9% previously, followed by 5.5% in 2027 and 5.2% in 2028. Public debt, meanwhile, would reach 122.7% of GDP by 2028, compared with 117.5% at the end of March according to Insee.<\/p>\n
“These deficit projections are higher than at the last review, reflecting weaker growth, higher interest expenses, and additional defense commitments,” the agency explained, also pointing to “high and rising indebtedness, a political and social context that makes fiscal consolidation difficult, and weak growth potential.”<\/p>\n
Political fragmentation remains, in Fitch’s view, “a major weakness for the rating,” because it “reduces the authorities’ capacity to implement durable fiscal adjustment and limits policy predictability.”<\/p>\n
A reprieve that does not mask the tensions<\/p>\n
Economy Minister Roland Lescure said the government “takes note” of the decision, asserting that “the government remains fully mobilized to contain the public deficit and debt, within a responsible and balanced framework, in order to guarantee over the long term financial stability as well as the competitiveness and growth of the French economy.”<\/p>\n
The context, however, is tense. France narrowly avoided recession in the second quarter, the government lowered its 2026 growth forecast from 0.9% to 0.7%, and inflation accelerated in August to 2.4% year-on-year. More importantly, government borrowing rates now exceed 4% to refinance debt, a level unseen in nearly twenty years.<\/p>\n
“Fitch, which was forecasting a public deficit of 4.9% of GDP in 2026, is now telling us the public deficit will be closer to 5.2% and will even reach 5.5% in 2027. That is a sharp deterioration,” notes \u00c9ric Dor, an economist at I\u00c9SEG School of Management, who believes the agency had “grounds” to downgrade the rating.<\/p>\n
The 2027 budget and the presidential election in the crosshairs<\/p>\n
Just over a month before the presentation of the final budget bill of the five-year term, Prime Minister S\u00e9bastien Lecornu has still not set a deficit target for 2027. He will once again have to push through legislation without a parliamentary majority, facing repeated censure threats from the Socialist Party.<\/p>\n
For economist Sylvain Bersinger, founder of the consultancy Bersing\u00e9co, this budget will not have a major long-term impact, unlike the 2027 presidential election. “The central question, when assessing debt, is the long-term projection. And the whole issue is what comes out of the presidential election,” he says.<\/p>\n
Public debt has, in fact, entered the pre-presidential debate. Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon recently stated he wants to cancel part of France’s debt, drawing sharp reactions from candidates on the right and center.<\/p>\n
Upcoming deadlines<\/p>\n
The other two major rating agencies are set to rule in the coming months. Moody’s will publish its decision on October 23, followed by S&P Global Ratings on November 27.<\/p>\n
AgencyCurrent RatingNext DeadlineOutlookFitch RatingsA+August 28, 2026 (decision rendered)StableMoody’sAa3October 23, 2026To be confirmedS&P Global RatingsA+November 27, 2026Stable<\/p>\n
In autumn 2025, S&P downgraded France to A+, with a stable outlook. Moody’s, for its part, rates French debt Aa3, the bottom of the “high quality” category. Fitch’s decision to maintain the rating therefore leaves France in a weakened but not critical position, pending the verdicts of the other two agencies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"France retains its sovereign debt rating of A+, with a stable outlook. Fitch Ratings delivered its decision on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71442,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[43946,43944,5,43947,390,14644,1472,30335,801,43945],"class_list":["post-71441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-france","tag-eric-dor","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-france","tag-insee","tag-jean-luc-melenchon","tag-moodys","tag-roland-lescure","tag-sp-global-ratings","tag-sebastien-lecornu","tag-sylvain-bersinger"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/france\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}