isions and about €2 billion of loan losses in 2026, which would drag on profits even if revenue targets stay intact. That’s why RBC trimmed its 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share forecasts by 2%, while still arguing the story is less about the Q3 headline number and more about whether credit costs start to normalize after the clean-up work.
Why should I care?
For markets: RBC kept its €36 Deutsche Bank target even after penciling in €2 billion of 2026 loan losses.
For banks, provisions act like a brake on valuation: every extra euro reserved for potential defaults reduces net profit and makes returns look weaker, which can keep a stock’s valuation multiple capped. So the big question investors will press on October 28th is whether the expected Q3-Q4 bump is mostly self-inflicted and finite – tied to commercial real estate “derisking” and a one-off corporate charge – or whether it signals a higher, repeatable level of credit costs. If management can credibly frame it as a clean-up, then meeting 2026 goals could make any longer-term target updates more believable. If not, the market typically treats ambitious out-year targets as less relevant than the here-and-now credit trend.