In a note published following a discussion with management, Arthur Kuntz, an analyst at AlphaValue, highlights the pressure exerted by higher fuel prices on the German airline’s profitability. Despite several resilience factors, particularly on transatlantic routes and in air cargo, he maintains his “sell” recommendation on the stock.
During discussions with analysts, Lufthansa confirmed its 2026 operating profit (EBIT) guidance of between €1.7bn and €2.2bn, despite higher fuel prices. At AlphaValue, Arthur Kuntz believes that the change in crude oil prices should bring the group closer to the lower end of its target range. The fuel bill could indeed exceed the €1.5bn initially anticipated.
The analyst nevertheless points out that the German airline remains better hedged than its peers for 2027, at 60%, compared with 43% for Air France-KLM and 15% for Ryanair. He also notes the resilience of transatlantic demand and the favorable outlook for air cargo in the third quarter.
Regarding external growth operations, Lufthansa has submitted an improved, all-cash offer for TAP Air Portugal, while the first figures from ITA Airways are expected shortly. Union negotiations, considered constructive, could also be concluded by the end of October.
Arthur Kuntz says AlphaValue is currently revising its estimates to incorporate the latest market data, and maintains its “sell” recommendation on the German carrier.