In the Asia-Pacific and Africa region, the overall losses in 2023 of US$ 64bn were slightly lower than in the previous year (US$ 66bn). Approximately US$ 8bn of this amount was insured (previous year: US$ 11bn). Japan, a country highly exposed to natural hazards, was largely spared major damage in 2023.
While Typhoon Doksuri was the year’s costliest disaster in terms of overall losses, two major catastrophes in New Zealand together accounted for the highest insured losses in Asia-Pacific (around US$ 4bn). In early February, there were massive floods in and around Auckland, New Zealand’s biggest city, causing insured losses of nearly US$ 2bn and overall losses of US$ 2.9bn. In mid-February, Cyclone Gabrielle hit New Zealand’s North Island and Norfolk Island, resulting in huge damage. Losses from the cyclone were at a similar level to those from the floods.
In Africa, Medicane Daniel made landfall in Libya in September, and was accompanied by torrential rainfall. Dams in the city of Derna collapsed. More than 4,000 people lost their lives in the ensuing floods.
Also in September, around 3,000 people were killed in a 6.8-magnitude earthquake in Morocco. It was the strongest earthquake in Morocco for well over 100 years. The destructive power of the quake produced overall losses of some US$ 7bn. Very little was protected, with insured losses totalling around US$ 0.3bn.
At the start of the year, Cyclone Freddy triggered a humanitarian disaster in southeast Africa. Freddy formed off the Australian coast, before crossing the entire southern Indian Ocean, covering a distance of more than 8,000 kilometres. It now holds the record for the longest cyclone ever registered (five weeks). It made landfall on the island of Madagascar and then meandered back and forth between Madagascar and Mozambique. As a result, Mozambique was impacted twice over by the tropical cyclone. More than 1,400 people were killed in Mozambique and neighbouring countries.
In the northeast of Australia, severe flooding occurred in mid-December as a result of tropical storm Jasper in the state of Queensland. According to media reports, there was more than 800 mm of rain in just one day. This is roughly equivalent to the average annual rainfall in Germany. Numerous rivers burst their banks. It is still too early to reliably quantify the damage.
As in other regions, ENSO conditions influence weather extremes in Asia, in addition to climate change. The El Niño ENSO expression peaked at the end of the year and will most likely subside by mid-year. Australia can therefore hope for a mild cyclone season overall, lasting until the end of April. In contrast, the risk of forest fires is likely to be increased as the lush vegetation of recent months begins to dry out, increasing flammability. If El Niño turns into its counterpart, La Niña, in the second half of 2024, the risk of flooding for eastern Australia could increase.
The outlook for the typhoon season in the northwest Pacific remains unclear due to the uncertainty of ENSO development in the second half of the year. In the event of a La Niña phase, typhoon activity in the northwest Pacific could be below average. However, more storms could hit the Philippines, as storms under La Niña conditions tend to move westwards rather than northwards.